Access of Latin American and Caribbean exports to the US market 2004-2005

The trade relationship between the United States and Latin America and the Caribbean has grown over the past years to the benefit of both economies. Additionally, important efforts have taken place in pursuit of free trade. The United States Congress approved the Dominican Republic - Central American Free Trade Agreement (DR-CAFTA) in 2005. The agreement shall enter into effect on a date to be agreed upon among the parties, pending approval of Nicaragua and Costa Rica legislatures. Furthermore, the United States is negotiating with Peru, Colombia, and Ecuador to establish the Andean Free Trade…

United States economic outlook: quarterly developments

Capital flows to Latin America: first quarter 2005

Latin American markets entered 2005 with impetus, as the favorable environment for capital inflows at the end of 2004 persisted in the beginning of the year. However, investors' sentiment deteriorated as the first quarter progressed, and concerns about economic conditions (including rising interest rates in the United States and lower liquidity in global markets) increased. In February, Fitch, the credit rating agency, released a report warning that a combination of slowing global growth and higher-than-anticipated U.S. interest rates would lead to a less favorable environment for emergin…

Capital flows to Latin America: fourth quarter 2004

United States economic outlook: quarterly developments

United States economic outlook: quarterly developments

United States economic outlook: quarterly developments

Capital flows to Latin America: 2004 highlights

Investors expect a strong finish for emerging markets this year, as market environment remains supportive of credit products, especially those with strong fundamentals and interesting yields, which is the case for emerging markets. Since the start of the year there were two sets of forces driving emerging markets debt: global liquidity and fundamental credit improvements. To a large degree, improving credit quality has itself been the result of ample global liquidity and the low interest-rate environment. Against this backdrop, spreads reached record low levels and issuance was boosted. The we…

Capital flows to Latin America: second quarter 2004

During the second quarter, the prospect of an unexpected U.S. interest rate increase weakened investors' appetite for risk, and capital flows to Latin America faded in response. Latin American spreads increased by 71 basis points during the quarter, up to 607 bps at the end of June, from 536 bps at the end of March. Quarterly issuance in Latin America also suffered, dropping to US$4.7 billion, a level not seen since the last quarter of 2002. As a result, Latin America moved behind Eastern Europe, which issued US$6.3 billion or 39% of total emerging market issuance, compared to 29% for L…

Access of Latin American and Caribbean exports to the US market 2003-2004

The trade relationship between the United States and Latin America and the Caribbean has grown over the past years to the benefit of both economies. As well, important efforts have taken place in pursuit of free trade. In 2003, the Chile-U.S. free trade agreement was completed and approved by Congress; Central America and the U.S. concluded negotiations (CAFTA) and in 2004 the Dominican Republic was added to the CAFTA; the U.S. also started negotiations with four Andean countries and Panama. This report needs to be placed in the context of an ongoing trading relationship. It is expected to…

Capital flows to Latin America: third quarter 2004

In the third quarter of 2004, the positive interaction of external and domestic factors in the Latin American region created a favorable environment for capital inflows. Among the external factors, an unprecedented amount of global liquidity, combined with an environment of low risk-free rates and a search for yield, was one of the main driving forces in the third quarter. Liquidity and low rates benefited not only emerging market debt, but all risky assets, which have become highly correlated among themselves. However, in the case of emerging markets, and Latin American markets in particular,…

United States economic outlook: quarterly developments

Capital flows to Latin America: first quarter 2004

In the first quarter of 2004, bond flows remained strong as issuers rushed to take advantage of low borrowing costs. Emerging market issuance stood at US$24.4 billion, a 15% increase from the US$20.7 billion issued in the first quarter of 2003 and the highest quarterly supply in the last three years. Almost half of this years expected sovereign issuance materialized in the first three months. By region, Latin America had the most issuance this quarter with US$11.6 billion (47.3% of all emerging market debt issuance). However, in the near future, a tightening of liquidity by major industrial…

Capital flows to Latin America: fourth quarter 2003

In the fourth quarter of 2003, net capital flows to emerging markets accelerated sharply to reach a 3-year high of US$187 billion, a 50% increase from the US$124 billion reached in 2002. This increase is the result of the combination of abundant global liquidity, strong economic growth, and the improving credit quality of borrowers in both mature and emerging markets. Emerging markets were favored by moderate volatility, low risk-free interest rates and rising commodity prices. In addition, a weak US dollar, solid cash flows and search for yield supported the rally to Latin American countries.…

United States economic outlook: quarterly developments

Capital flows to Latin America: third quarter 2002

Brazil's electoral outlook and the external backdrop were the main drivers of Latin American credits in the third quarter of 2002, thus the performance of Latin American markets continued to be pressured by Brazil's fate and the ebb and flow of investors' risk appetite. The region had a rare month of outperformance in August, as the prompt negotiation of an IMF agreement for Brazil and the moderation of global risk aversion brought strong returns for Brazil, in particular, and for countries considered high-risks in general. However, risk aversion peaked again in September, retur…

Capital flows to Latin America: third quarter 2003

In the third quarter of 2003, investors continued to favor riskier assets buoyed by abundant global liquidity, low interest rates in mature markets, strong economic growth (with low inflation), and improving credit quality. Credit spreads in emerging and Latin American markets narrowed in response, by 41 and 56 basis points, respectively, and are near historical lows in most emerging market countries. The EMBI+ index is well below its long run average, according to J.P Morgan. Issuers in emerging markets and Latin America benefited from the decline in spreads, as well as from the greater inter…

Access of Latin American and Caribbean exports in the U.S. market 2002-2003

Access to Latin American and Caribbean Exports in the United States market, 2001-2002 is the eighth annual report released by the ECLAC Washington Office, updating information contained in previous reports. Its aim is to compile and make available information on trade inhibiting measures that Latin American and Caribbean exports encounter in the United States market. This report needs to be placed in the context of a trade relationship between the United States and Latin America and the Caribbean, which has grown strongly over the years to the benefit of both economies. Moreover, it must be …

United States-Latin America and the Caribbean: trade developments 2003

This document provides an overview of the most relevant developments in United States trade policy relating to Latin America and the Caribbean in 2003. U.S. policy continued to promote trade liberalization through advancing negotiations on multiple fronts- globally (WTO), regionally (FTAA) and bilaterally (Chile and CAFTA)- with a view that the various negotiations are mutually reinforcing and seek to create a constructive competition for liberalization among trade partners. The Trade Promotion Authority (TPA) provided an impetus to the signing and Congressional approval of bilateral free t…

Capital flows to Latin America: second quarter 2003

In the first half of 2003, emerging debt markets rallied, as disillusionment with equities, geopolitical concerns, and doubts about growth prospects led investors to shift from equities in favor of fixed incomes securities. As equity prices in the United States struggled early in the year, and the price of U.S. Treasuries rose to a 40-year high, attention was drawn to emerging market assets. Emerging debt markets were driven by liquidity, rising risk tolerance, a search for yield and a wider investor acceptance of the asset class. As a consequence, credit spreads on emerging market bonds narr…