Revista CEPAL Nº 130

Las transformaciones tecnológicas y el empleo en América Latina: oportunidades y desafíos / Jürgen Weller .-- Análisis comparativo de los precios de los medicamentos en América Latina / Roberto Álvarez y Aldo González .-- Sistemas de innovación y cambios en la división centro-periferia: notas sobre una metodología para determinar las trayectorias de los países a partir de las estadísticas de ciencia y tecnología / Catari Vilela Chaves, Leonardo Costa Ribeiro, Ulisses Pereira dos Santos y Eduardo da Motta e Albuquerque .-- Corrupción, estructura productiva y desarrollo económico en los países e…

The impact of public debt on economic growth: an empirical study of Mexico (1994–2016)

Following on from recent literature on the same subject, this paper analyses the impact of public debt on economic growth in Mexico between 1994 and 2016, against a global macroeconomic backdrop of sharp rises in public sector debt indicators, owing to expansionary fiscal strategies adopted after the 2007–2008 crisis. The main objectives of this study are to determine whether the relationship between these two variables has followed a non-linear path in the form of an inverted “U”, and to find the threshold beyond which increases in debt generate marginal decreases in growth. Using a dynamic m…

El impacto de la deuda pública en el crecimiento económico: un estudio empírico de México (1994-2016)

A partir de la literatura reciente sobre el mismo tema, en este artículo se analiza el impacto de la deuda pública en el crecimiento económico de México entre 1994 y 2016, en un contexto macroeconómico mundial de marcados aumentos en los indicadores de deuda del sector público, debido a las estrategias fiscales expansivas adoptadas tras la crisis de 2007-2008. Los principales objetivos de este estudio son determinar si la relación entre estas dos variables ha seguido una trayectoria no lineal en forma de U invertida, y encontrar el umbral más allá del cual los aumentos de la deuda generan dism…

U.S. Economic Outlook: 2019 in review and early 2020 developments

Highlights • The record long U.S. economic expansion is coming to an end, as a result of the COVID-19 pandemic. Shutdowns to stem the spread of the virus have already had an impact on the economy, and are already visible in some preliminary data for March, ranging from jobless claims to factory output. The U.S. government will release its initial estimate for the first quarter of 2020 at the end of April, and a decline in growth is expected, followed by an even worse decline in the second quarter. • Three stimulus packages were approved by the U.S. Congress in March, aiming to address the impa…

CEPAL apresenta nova publicação sobre os impactos transformadores dos investimentos em energias renováveis no Uruguai

O Escritório da CEPAL no Brasil anuncia a publicação do quarto número da série Estudos e Perspectivas, dedicado à análise dos impactos econômicos, sociais e ambientais da política que transformou o setor energético do Uruguai.…

Capital Flows to Latin America and the Caribbean: 2019 Year-in-Review

These are the main highlights of the Capital Flows to Latin America 2019 Year-in-Review edition: • In 2019, international bond issuance from Latin America and the Caribbean (LAC) increased and bond spreads tightened, but credit quality continued to deteriorate although at a slower pace relative to 2018. • Lowering global interest rates brought issuance volume up in the region. Total LAC debt issuance in international markets in 2019 was US$ 119 billion, 26% higher than in 2018. • Mexican, Brazilian and Chilean borrowers were the main contributors to the region’s performance. Together they were…

ECLAC: Central America and the Dominican Republic Will Grow 3.2% in 2020

The economies of Central America (Costa Rica, El Salvador, Guatemala, Honduras, Nicaragua and Panama) and the Dominican Republic – known as the CARD countries in Spanish – will have a weighted average growth rate of 3.2% in 2020, with the highest rates forecast for the Dominican Republic and Panama, the Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean (ECLAC) revealed. The document Preliminary Overview of the Economies of Central America and the Dominican Republic in 2019 and Prospects for 2020 explains that the international context was affected by trade tensions and great political un…

Na COP25, a CEPAL e parceiros do poder público brasileiro realizaram evento paralelo sobre investimentos em energias sustentáveis no Brasil

O Escritório da CEPAL em Brasília realizou em Madrid o evento paralelo “Energy Big Push: acelerando investimentos em inovação em energia sustentável no Brasil” em conjunto com o Centro de Gestão e Estudos Estratégicos (CGEE), a Agência Internacional de Energia (IEA, na sigla em inglês), a Empresa de Pesquisa Energética (EPE) e o Ministério de Relações Exteriores do Brasil (MRE). O evento ocorreu durante a 25ª Conferência das Nações Unidas sobre Mudanças Climáticas (COP25), em Madrid, no dia 11 de dezembro de 2019.…

Balance preliminar de las economías de Centroamérica y la República Dominicana en 2019 y perspectivas para 2020

En el presente documento se hace un balance preliminar de las economías de Centroamérica (Costa Rica, El Salvador, Guatemala, Honduras, Nicaragua y Panamá) y la República Dominicana (CARD) en 2019 y se ofrecen perspectivas para 2020. Es un análisis de coyuntura elaborado por la Unidad de Desarrollo Económico de la Sede subregional de la Comisión Económica para América Latina y el Caribe (CEPAL) en México, con información disponible al 31 de enero de 2020.…

El sueño chino: cómo se ve China a sí misma y cómo nos equivocamos los occidentales al interpretarla

En el ajedrez, el objetivo es el derrumbe del rey. En el juego chino de wei, en cambio, se busca el cerco estratégico que evita el conflicto directo. No es exagerado aplicar ese paralelismo a los modos en que Estados Unidos y China, respectivamente, se posicionan en el conflicto de hegemonías que hoy los tiene como protagonistas, de cuya resolución dependerá en buena medida el mundo que habitaremos en el siglo XXI. A pesar de la centralidad de esta disputa, Occidente permanece tercamente aferrado a estereotipos e ideas equivocadas cuando trata de interpretar las ambiciones políticas chinas. E…

Balanço Preliminar das Economias da América Latina e do Caribe 2019

Este Balanço Preliminar das Economias da América Latina e do Caribe vem à luz num contexto econômico e social extremamente complexo para a região. A América Latina apresenta desaceleração econômica generalizada e sincronizada nos países e nos diversos setores. Em 2019, contrastando com anos anteriores, 18 dos 20 países da América Latina, bem como 23 das 33 economias da América Latina e do Caribe, apresentam desaceleração na taxa de crescimento da atividade econômica. O menor dinamismo da demanda interna foi acompanhado por baixa demanda agregada externa e mercados financeiros internacionais ma…

Economic Survey of the Caribbean 2019

This survey examines the economic performance of economies of the Caribbean in 2018 and comprises six chapters. The first chapter gives an overview of global, regional and subregional economic performance as well as unemployment in the Caribbean. The second provides an analysis of governments in the subregion’s fiscal performance and debt burden. The third looks at monetary policy and variables. The fourth is focused external sector and its factors. The fifth chapter concludes, while the final chapter includes individual country briefs that give an overview of the economic situation for the Ba…

The asset management industry in the United States

This paper describes the dimensions and activities of the asset management industry in the United States locating the industry in the global context. It also discusses the evolution of asset management strategies utilized by the industry, setting up the discussion of the potential risks associated with this set of strategies and identifies the potential risks to the industry and explore the overall risks they raise for the global financial system. Finally, it provides regulatory responses to deal with these potential problems and briefly summarizes some suggested modifications of regulations t…

Raúl Prebisch y su faceta de banquero central y doctor monetario (textos publicados e inéditos de la década de 1940)

Este segundo suplemento especial de la Revista CEPAL reúne textos inéditos de Raúl Prebisch presentados por el autor en la República Dominicana y en el Paraguay, en los años en que apoyó las misiones monetarias de la Reserva Federal de los Estados Unidos a cargo de Robert Triffin, en 1945 y 1946. La publicación de este valioso material, al que se suman tres textos extraídos de las obras completas del autor —dos sobre lineamientos de una política monetaria nacional en la Argentina y uno sobre la compatibilidad de los planes monetarios internacionales de los economistas John Maynard Keynes y Har…

Análisis estructural de la economía hondureña: el mercado laboral

El presente estudio tiene un carácter eminentemente empírico; se emplea la metodología de insumo-producto para analizar las características estructurales del aparato productivo hondureño con un nivel de desagregación pertinente y compatible con el propósito de derivar implicaciones de política pública útiles para la toma de decisiones. Se eligió 2013 como año de referencia porque el Banco Central de Honduras elaboró una matriz de insumo-producto para ese año. Esta referencia es lo suficientemente cercana como para mantener la pertinencia de la inferencia de política, que se refiere a condicion…

U.S. Economic Outlook: Third Quarter 2019

Highlights • In the third quarter of 2019, the U.S. economy grew at a 2.1% annualized rate. Growth was driven by consumer and government spending, and a buildup in inventories. • The third quarter of 2019 was the 41st consecutive quarter of growth and November the 125th month of consecutive growth for the U.S. economy. The current expansion is the longest on record. • The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) cut the federal funds rate three times this year, in July, September and October, due to slowing global growth and trade uncertainty, contributing to diminish recession fears. Federal Rese…

Capital Flows to Latin America and the Caribbean: Third Quarter 2019

These are the main highlights of the Capital Flows to Latin America, Third Quarter 2019 edition: • International bond issuance from Latin America and the Caribbean (LAC) in the third quarter (Q3) of 2019 was US$ 39.3 billion. It was up 17% from the second quarter, and up 541% from the third quarter of 2018, and it was the highest third-quarter issuance since 2010. • From January to October 2019, the region’s total bond issuance reached US$ 103 billion, 20% higher than in the same period in 2018. • The three top issuers, sovereign and corporate issuance combined, accounted for 65% of the tota…

Launch of the Preliminary Overview of the Economies of LAC 2019

Lanzamiento Balance Preliminar de las Economías de ALC 2019

Preliminary Overview of the Economies of Latin America and the Caribbean 2019

This edition of the Preliminary Overview of the Economies of Latin America and the Caribbean is released amid an extremely complex economic and social context for the region. Latin America is showing a synchronized economic slowdown at the country and sector levels. In contrast to previous years, in 2019 growth in economic activity is slowing in 18 of the 20 countries of Latin America, and in 23 of the 33 countries of the Latin American and Caribbean region as a whole. The slackening of domestic demand has been accompanied by low aggregate external demand and more fragile international financi…