The Hummingbird Vol. 11 No. 12

United States economic outlook: first half of 2024

The United States economy expanded at an annualized rate of 3.0% in the second quarter of 2024 —more than double the 1.4% GDP growth recorded in the first quarter and well above the economy’s long-term growth potential—, driven primarily by consumer spending. The resilience of consumer spending has been supported by receding inflation and a robust labour market. Inflation slowed to 2.5% in August 2024, the lowest level in more than three years. Employment has increased for 44 consecutive months, but the labour market is softening. The Federal Reserve announced an interest rate cut of 0.50% in …

Estudo Econômico da América Latina e do Caribe, 2024. Resumo executivo

A América Latina e o Caribe estão presos numa armadilha de crescimento que se prolonga por várias décadas e o contexto mundial e regional limita o espaço das políticas macroeconômicas a seu favor. Os resultados do Estudo Econômico da América Latina e do Caribe, 2024 mostram uma redução na taxa de criação de postos de trabalho, especialmente empregos formais, sendo que grupos como os jovens, as mulheres, os idosos, os migrantes e as pessoas que vivem em zonas rurais são mais propensos a ter trabalhos informais. Além disso, se não forem adotadas políticas de mitigação e adaptação, uma intensific…

Proyección 2024 para América Latina y el Caribe

Se espera que América Latina y el Caribe cierre 2024 con un mayor déficit en cuenta corriente después de una ligera mejora observada en 2023.Para 2024, se prevé que la cuenta corriente en América Latina y el Caribe se deteriore levemente liderado por un deterioro de la balanza de renta y de los servicios compensado por un aumento en el ingreso de capitales. Sin embargo, se anticipa una leve expansión de las exportaciones mientras que las importaciones deberían seguir deprimidas ante una actividad económica en desaceleración y una moderación de la demanda interna en la región. Persisten riesgos…

Lanzamiento informe "Estudio Económico de América Latina y el Caribe 2024"

El martes 13 de agosto la CEPAL dió a conocer su Estudio Económico de América Latina y el Caribe, 2024: trampa de bajo crecimiento, cambio climático y dinámica del empleo, uno de los principales informes económicos anuales de la institución, en donde realiza un balance de las economías de la región en los últimos meses y actualiza sus estimaciones de crecimiento para cada uno de los países. La presentación del documento se realizará mediante una conferencia de prensa híbrida (presencial y virtual) en la sede central del organismo en Santiago de Chile. En su edición correspondiente a 2024, el i…

Economic Survey of Latin America and the Caribbean, 2024: low-growth trap, climate change and employment trends

Latin America and the Caribbean is mired in a decades-long growth trap, and further hampered by global and regional conditions that limit the space for macroeconomic policies to spur economic growth in the region. The results of the Economic Survey of Latin America and the Caribbean, 2024 reveal weaker job creation, especially in the formal sector, with young people, women, older persons, migrants and rural dwellers among the most likely to be informal workers. In addition, an intensification of climate change effects will drastically reduce the number of jobs created in the medium term if mit…

SIDS 4: Now or never for small island survival

Economic Survey of Latin America and the Caribbean, 2025: resource mobilization to finance development

Abstract…

Poor Investment Performance, Low Labor Productivity and Limited Fiscal Space Keep Latin America and the Caribbean in a Trap of Low Economic Growth

ECLAC released today a new edition of its annual report Economic Survey of Latin America and the Caribbean 2024: Low-growth trap, climate change and employment trends, in which it stresses that the region remains stuck in a trap of low growth accompanied by poor investment performance and low labor productivity, which is compounded by limited domestic space for implementing macroeconomic policies for a reactivation as well as global uncertainty. The report – one of this United Nations regional economic commission’s most important – was presented in Santiago, Chile at a press conference led by …

Mal desempeño de la inversión, baja productividad laboral y limitado espacio fiscal mantienen a América Latina y el Caribe en una trampa de bajo crecimiento económico

La CEPAL dio a conocer hoy una nueva edición de su informe anual Estudio Económico de América Latina y el Caribe 2024: Trampa de bajo crecimiento, cambio climático y dinámica del empleo, en donde recalca que la región se mantiene estancada en una trampa de bajo crecimiento acompañada de un mal desempeño de la inversión y una baja productividad laboral, a lo que se suma el poco espacio interno para implementar políticas macroeconómicas de reactivación y la incertidumbre global. El informe, uno de los más importantes de esta comisión económica regional de las Naciones Unidas, fue presentad…

O baixo desempenho dos investimentos, a baixa produtividade do trabalho e o espaço fiscal limitado mantêm a América Latina e o Caribe em uma armadilha de baixo crescimento

A CEPAL divulgou hoje uma nova edição de seu relatório anual Estudo Econômico da América Latina e do Caribe 2024: armadilha de baixo crescimento, mudança climática e dinâmica do emprego, no qual destaca que a região continua presa em uma armadilha de baixo crescimento, acompanhada por um fraco desempenho do investimento e baixa produtividade do trabalho, além de pouco espaço para implementação de políticas macroeconômicas reativadoras, em um cenário de incerteza global. O relatório, um dos mais importantes dessa comissão econômica regional das Nações Unidas, foi apresentado em Santiago, …

Estudio Económico de América Latina y el Caribe, 2024: trampa de bajo crecimiento, cambio climático y dinámica del empleo

América Latina y el Caribe se encuentra en una trampa de crecimiento que se ha prolongado por varias décadas y el contexto mundial y regional limitan el espacio de las políticas macroeconómicas en su favor. Los resultados del Estudio Económico de América Latina y el Caribe, 2024 muestran una reducción en la tasa de creación de puestos de trabajo, en especial empleos formales, y que grupos como los jóvenes, las mujeres, los adultos mayores, las personas migrantes y las personas que viven en zonas rurales son más propensos a tener trabajos informales. Además, un intensificación de los efectos de…

External debt and exchange-rate misalignment in Brazilian firms: developments and risks from 2000 to 2018

This article investigates the effects of exchange-rate misalignment on the earnings of 201 Brazilian non-financial listed companies over the period 2010–2018. A measure of exchange-rate misalignment was constructed by compiling information on the value of currency derivative contracts and generating a new database. The results indicate that exchange-rate devaluation has a negative differential effect for firms that have borrowed in foreign currency, including exporting firms. Controlling for variables that protect firms with foreign currency debt, we find that the differential effect of devalu…

Deuda externa y descalce del tipo de cambio de las empresas brasileñas: evolución y riesgos en el período 2000-2018

En este artículo se investigaron los efectos del descalce cambiario en los beneficios de 201 empresas no financieras brasileñas que cotizan en bolsa, en el período de 2010 a 2018. Se construyó una medida de descalce cambiario a partir de la recopilación de los valores de contratos de derivados de divisas, con los que se creó una base de datos inédita. Los resultados indican que la devaluación del tipo de cambio tiene un efecto diferencial negativo para las empresas endeudadas en moneda extranjera, incluidas las empresas exportadoras. Al controlar por variables que protegen a las empresas endeu…

CEPAL Review No. 143

Revista CEPAL Nº 143

Revista CEPAL Nº 143

Capital flows to Latin America and the Caribbean: first four months of 2024

Latin American and Caribbean issuers placed US$ 53 billion of bonds in international markets in the first four months of 2024. This total was 61.5% higher than in the same period in 2023. The market remained open to high-yield issuers from the region, but most of the region’s issuances (69%) came from the investment grade sector. After two consecutive years in which sovereign issuances surpassed the 50% mark, corporate bond issuances in the reporting period represented 58% of the total. The region issued US$ 13 billion in green, social, sustainability and sustainability linked bonds in interna…

Resilient growth, development and structural change in the Caribbean

Major Transformations in Latin America and the Caribbean’s Development Models Require Expanding Fiscal Space to Give Sustainability to Public Finances

The major transformations needed in Latin America and the Caribbean’s development models in order to achieve more productive, inclusive and sustainable societies require an expansion of fiscal space to give sustainability to public finances, according to the authorities, experts and academics gathered at the XXXVI Regional Seminar on Fiscal Policy, which concluded this Wednesday, May 8 at ECLAC’s headquarters in Santiago, Chile. This renowned regional forum – which has brought together authorities, specialists and members of civil society and academia for 36 years to discuss the fiscal policy …