Income distribution and poverty through crisis and adjustment

This article analyses the costs in terms of income distribution of the crisis and adjustments of the 1980s, as well as the effects of the subsequent recovery and resumption of sustained growth patterns. This analysis is based on comparable pairs of estimates of income distribution and poverty prepared by ECLAC for the ten largest and predominantly urban countries of the region. The method of analysis consists, on the one hand, of comparing the changes in distribution and in the macroeconomic and labour market variables during similar macroeconomic phases in the course of the adjustment process…

Youth and social cohesion in Ibero-America: a model in the making. Summary

Ibero-America is living through promising times in terms of the relation between youth and development. The signs are well known, and this report provides an unprecedented compilation of evidence confirming them. The region's youth today have more years of education on average than adults, and the gap is even more favourable for youth in terms of access to new communication technologies, information and knowledge. The population dynamic indicates that the coming years will see a reduction in the proportion of young people in the overall population in most Ibero-American countries, and thi…

Structural change and productivity growth 20 years later: old problems, new opportunities. Summary

IntroductionNearly 20 years ago, ECLAC put forward a proposal for structural change and productivity growth with social equity. At the time, the countries of the region were emerging from the severe crisis of the 1980s, with all its associated difficulties in terms of internal stabilization and external adjustment, and heading into a decade of structural reform which heeded the call of the Washington Consensus. In the midst of perplexity and pessimism regarding the region's prospects, ECLAC espoused a view of the situation that ran counter to the orthodox line of thought that marked econo…

Capital flows to Latin America: recent developments

In the midst of broad global market turmoil and mounting fears of a recession in the U.S., emerging markets have shown strong growth and economic resilience. For the first time in recent history, the external meltdown has not sparked capital flight from Latin America. Quite the contrary, Latin American markets have been seen by investors as a safe haven from the supbprime woes afflicting the U.S. economyDespite showing significant resilience, Latin American debt spreads widened in the first quarter of 2008, and after reaching record lows in May 2007, they are now re-approaching pre-Asian crisi…

Structural change and productivity growth, 20 years later: old problems, new opportunities

IntroductionNearly 20 years ago, ECLAC put forward a proposal for structural change and productivity growth with social equity. At the time, the countries of the region were emerging from the severe crisis of the 1980s, with all its associated difficulties in terms of internal stabilization and external adjustment, and headed into a decade of structural reform which heeded the call of the Washington Consensus. In the midst of perplexity and pessimism regarding the region's prospects, ECLAC espoused a view of the situation that ran counter to the extremely orthodox line of thought that mar…

Capital flows to Latin America: recent developments

The external environment has deteriorated sharply as a result of the spiraling financial turmoil, and has led to a weakening in commodity prices and fears of a worldwide recession. Latin America and the Caribbean's fastest expansion in 40 years may be threatened as the global credit crunch makes financing scarce and squeezes demand for the region's commodities. This time around the region is better positioned to weather the crisis than in the past, given improvements in macroeconomic and financial policies as well as a reduced net dependency on external capital inflows. However, Lati…

Export diversification and growth in emerging economies

This paper develops and tests a model of growth that emphasizesthe introduction of new exports as the main source of growth in countriesthat are well within the global technology frontier and depend for growthon adapting existing products to their economic environment. It seeks tocapture the stylized facts behind growth in countries as different as theRepublic of Korea, Taiwan Province of China, Mauritius, Finland, Chinaand Chile, all of which have relied on export diversification. The wideningof comparative advantage is thus seen as the main driver of economicgrowth. The export diversificatio…

The middle class and the development process

Stable, higher income democracies often have both a strong middle class and relatively low levels of inequality. In contrast, lower and middle income countries with highly unequal patterns of income distribution and stratified social structures often have a weak middle class, more social conflict and a tendency to populist and/or authoritarian politics. This paper investigates, for a sample of more than 120 countries, some empirical correlations between the size of the middle class and the following set of variables: the level (mean); of per capita income and wealth, the degree of inequality (…

Integration in Latin America - Trends and Challenges

Regional trade agreements have had a significant presence in the design of international and productive policies in Latin American and Caribbean countries since the early 1950s. Fifty years later, the region has not reached the degree of economic inter-relation found, for instance, in Western Europe, but the concern with promoting regional integration has been a tradition in an impressive amount of speeches and declarations by policy makers in the last decades. The weakening of multilateral negotiations and the multiplicity of bilateral agreements with countries in other regions might affect r…

Cuba: evolución económica durante 2007 y perspectivas para 2008

Rasgos generales de la evolución reciente En 2007, la economía cubana registró una expansión de 7,3%. Como el crecimiento demográfico fue nulo, el producto interno bruto (PIB) por habitante aumentó proporcionalmente con el PIB. El déficit fiscal global se incrementó ligeramente, de 3% del PIB en 2006 a 3,1% en 2007, mientras que la tasa de inflación varió 2,8%, la mitad que el año anterior (5,7%). Por último, la cuenta corriente de la balanza de pagos ascendió a un superávit equivalente a 0,8% del PIB. Cuba: Economic evolution during 2007 and Outlook for 2008 Abstract: General fea…

Macroeconomic modelling in central banks in Latin America

Abstract This paper presents an overview of current developments in macroeconomic modelling for forecasting and policy analysis in Latin America, based on material presented at a REDIMA project meeting at the UN Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean, Santiago de Chile, in September 2007. Some particular issues that arise in modeling emerging economies are described, in the context of recent developments in modeling developed economies.…

Economic survey of the Caribbean, 2007-2008

This survey provides an overview of the economic performance of countries of the Caribbean Development and Cooperation Committee (CDCC) for the year 2007 and their outlook for 2008. The report consists of three chapters. The first chapter provides a regional analysis of the main economic indicators from a comparative perspective starting with a brief discussion of the principal events in the world economy. The second chapter deals with two selected topics that are pivotal for the economic development of Caribbean countries, namely public debt sustainability and competitiveness in the tourism s…

Active labor market programs for the integration of youths and immigrants into the labor market: the Nordic experience

The purpose of this study is to survey the evaluation literature on active labor market programs (ALMPs) in the Nordic labor market in order to provide a general overview of the success and failure of different types of ALMPs as well as a more detailed account of the Nordic experience with targeted programs towards vulnerable groups such as unemployed youth and immigrants. The consensus in the evaluation literature is that the types of ALMPs that are efficient in reducing unemployment duration and increasing employment chances for the unemployed in general are also the most efficient for vulne…

Regional integration and public policy. Evaluation of the European experience and possible implications for Latin American integration

The United States subprime mortgage crisis and its implications for the Caribbean

The bursting of the property bubble – subprime mortgage crisis – in 2007 in the United States has engendered panic, recession fears and turmoil in the global financial system. Although the United States economy grew by 0.6 per cent in the last quarter of 2007, down from 4.9 per cent in the previous quarter, day by day worsening scenarios emerge, from escalating oil prices, to a depreciating dollar and financial institutions’ bailout by the Federal Reserve. Many economists and policy makers share the view that a subprime-led recession – i.e. two consecutive quarters with negative growth – is in…

The United States subprime crisis and its implications for the Caribbean

The global crisis, speculative capital and innovative financing for development

One of the characteristics of globalization has been the markedvolatility of financial flows. The realization that this was affecting growth andequity induced the International Conference on Financing for Development,held in Monterrey in 2002, to adopt a global commitment to deal with theissue of development financing. Since then there has been a mixture ofprogress, backsliding and inaction. This article conducts a brief review offinancial globalization and the current global crisis. It then examines theMonterrey Consensus, the evaluations by the United Nations Secretariatof compliance with th…

Public-private alliances for long-term national development strategies

Few developing countries have succeeded in consistently closing theincome gap with the world's richest nations without proactive governmentaction in pursuit of economic transformation and a dynamic role in theglobal economy. Two factors are crucial here: the development andimplementation of a medium- and long-term strategy to achieve rapideconomic transformation, and the support provided to this strategy by apublic-private alliance forged by means of a social process suited to localconditions. This article analyses the way alliances of this kind operate in10 countries outside the region d…

Institutions and public policies for rural development in Guatemala

This article reviews the formal institutional framework forimplementing rural development policies in Guatemala, which originatedin the State modernization process promoted through the Peace Accords.The main thesis is that rural development policies will be more efficientif they are based on the institutional framework that the Peace Accordsprovided, which distinguishes between three levels of government: central,deconcentrated and decentralized. While the two sub-national levelsexecute 43% of total public investment, central government needs to targetthe budget on poor zones, cut subsidies to…

Presenting the new Regional Action Plan for 2008 - 2010