This paper develops and tests a model of growth that emphasizesthe introduction of new exports as the main source of growth in countriesthat are well within the global technology frontier and depend for growthon adapting existing products to their economic environment. It seeks tocapture the stylized facts behind growth in countries as different as theRepublic of Korea, Taiwan Province of China, Mauritius, Finland, Chinaand Chile, all of which have relied on export diversification. The wideningof comparative advantage is thus seen as the main driver of economicgrowth. The export diversificatio…
This article reviews the formal institutional framework forimplementing rural development policies in Guatemala, which originatedin the State modernization process promoted through the Peace Accords.The main thesis is that rural development policies will be more efficientif they are based on the institutional framework that the Peace Accordsprovided, which distinguishes between three levels of government: central,deconcentrated and decentralized. While the two sub-national levelsexecute 43% of total public investment, central government needs to targetthe budget on poor zones, cut subsidies to…
Since monetary stabilization in 1994, bank consolidation has beengathering pace in Brazil as part of a global concentration trend followingbank deregulation processes. This article analyses the effect of bankconcentration on lending in Brazil in the period 1995-2004, distinguishingtwo stages and estimating panel data for Brazil's 27 federative units. Theresults support the hypothesis that the process of consolidation in theBrazilian banking sector has an adverse effect on lending, which mainlyharms the less developed regions of the country.…
A partir de la estabilización monetaria de 1994, se aceleró laconsolidación bancaria en Brasil, siguiendo una tendencia mundial a laconcentración a partir de un proceso de desregulación de la banca. Elpresente trabajo analiza el efecto de la concentración bancaria en laconcesión de crédito en Brasil en el período 1995-2004, distinguiendoen él dos etapas. Para llevar a cabo el análisis se realizó una estimacióncon datos en panel, utilizando información referente a las 27 unidadesfederales de Brasil. Los resultados corroboran la hipótesis de que elproceso de consolidación del sector bancario bra…
Abstract This paper presents an overview of current developments in macroeconomic modelling for forecasting and policy analysis in Latin America, based on material presented at a REDIMA project meeting at the UN Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean, Santiago de Chile, in September 2007. Some particular issues that arise in modeling emerging economies are described, in the context of recent developments in modeling developed economies.…
General trends of the recent evolutionEconomic activity in the Central American Isthmus 1 and the Dominican Republic in 2007 expanded 7.1%, four tenths less than in 2006. Thus, the economic growth of the subregion 2 was one and a half percentage points greater than the registered average of Latin America and the Caribbean. In terms of GDP per capita, growth was 5%. This performance represents a continuation of the expansionary phase of the economic cycle that began in 2004, characterized by an improvement in the majority of the economic and social indicators and linked to the positive evolutio…
During much of 2007, the Latin American and Caribbean region witnessed a great deal of volatility in financial markets owing to uncertainty about the impact that the financial crisis in the United States could have on that country’s and the world’s real economies. This crisis has not, however, had any significant repercussions in terms of the level of economic activity or international trade, and most of the economies in the region have continued to grow rapidly. This growth —estimated at 5.6% for the region as a whole— has been driven primarily by domestic demand, with particularly sharp incr…
Durante gran parte del año 2007 la región de América Latina y el Caribe enfrentó una elevada volatilidad de los mercados financieros como consecuencia de la incertidumbre sobre el impacto de la crisis financiera estadounidense en la economía real de ese país y a nivel mundial. Sin embargo, no ha habido repercusiones significativas en la actividad y el comercio internacional y en la mayoría de los países de la región han seguido registrándose tasas elevadas de crecimiento, basadas principalmente en la demanda interna, en la que se destacó el aumento del consumo privado y de la formación bruta d…
Rasgos generales de la evolución reciente En 2006 la economía haitiana registró de nuevo una variación positiva (2,3%) del producto interno bruto (PIB), así como una reducción de la tasa de inflación (10,3%, diciembre-diciembre). Este desempeño fue acompañado por un saneamiento de las finanzas públicas, resultado fiscal de equilibrio, sin financiamiento monetario del Banco Central, y la economía se benefició de una transferencia neta de recursos (104 millones de dólares) equivalente a 2,1% del PIB.…
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