Em seu relatório anual Perspectivas do Comércio Internacional da América Latina e do Caribe a CEPAL projeta que o comércio internacional da América Latina e do Caribe terá uma recuperação importante em 2021 após a forte queda observada no ano passado, mas essa recuperação será assimétrica e muito heterogênea entre os países da região, em um contexto de grande incerteza devido à crise provocada pela pandemia da COVID-19. Segundo o documento, para todo o ano de 2021, a CEPAL projeta um aumento de 25% no valor das exportações regionais de bens - após cair 10% em 2020 -, impulsionado pela alta de …
Existe evidencia de que la inversión fomenta el crecimiento económico, con lo cual, se generan mayores recursos al Estado. La cuantía de esta mayor recaudación fiscal depende de diversas condiciones, entre ellas, el momento en que se encuentre el ciclo económico. De acuerdo con la evidencia empírica, el multiplicador de la inversión tiende a ser mayor en condiciones recesivas. Por lo que el actual contexto de pandemia por COVID-19 sería un escenario propicio para potenciar el efecto que la inversión en infraestructura tiene sobre el crecimiento. Este documento presenta una revisión teórica y u…
Economic growth in the United States slowed to 2.1% year-on-year in the third quarter
of 2021, from 6.7% year-on-year in the second quarter of 2021. Consumer spending
in the third quarter rose at its slowest pace since the recovery began, as durable
goods spending fell sharply amid supply shortages and rising inflationary pressures.
The labour market remained strong, averaging 651,000 new jobs per month. With
the Federal Reserve shifting its stance towards reducing accommodative measures
at a faster pace, Latin America and the Caribbean may experience tighter external
financial conditions next…
Declining economic growth and competitiveness, the impact of the 2007–2009 global financial crisis, and the challenge of climate change and extreme weather events have hindered the sustainable development of Caribbean economies, the generation of sustained welfare gains and the achievement of key Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). Moreover, the COVID-19 pandemic has exacerbated the subregion’s vulnerability to the vagaries of global aggregate demand and commodity prices, which have largely driven the subregion’s debt upwards and dampened economic growth before its onset, compromising its ec…
In its 2021 edition, this ECLAC annual report examines the foreign trade performance of the region’s economies during the current year, with the most recent figures available on the impact of COVID-19 and the post-pandemic recovery in the distinct countries. The publication consists of three chapters. The first analyzes the evolution of global and regional trade in the last year and their prospects for a post-pandemic recovery. The second chapter examines the challenge of achieving productive autonomy in the region’s health industry, and the third offers proposals for defining the contribution…
En su edición 2021, este informe anual de la CEPAL examina el comportamiento del comercio exterior de las economías durante el presente año, con las más recientes cifras disponibles sobre el impacto y la recuperación pospandemia de COVID-19 en los países de la región. El documento consta de tres capítulos. El primero examina la evolución del comercio mundial y regional en el último año y sus perspectivas de recuperación pospandemia. El segundo analiza el desafío de la autonomía productiva en la industria de la salud de la región, y el tercero entrega propuestas para definir el aporte del comer…
COVID-19 has brought to the fore the need to address the problem of financing for development in middle-income countries, which has been characterized by the increasing decoupling of per capita income and the ability to mobilize domestic and external resources, and the disconnect between economic and social needs and the response of multilateral cooperation. This must be urgently addressed, as Latin American and Caribbean countries must recover from the effects of the pandemic and avoid another lost decade.
Middle-income countries, such as those in Latin America and the Caribbean, require mult…
El COVID-19 ha puesto sobre el tapete la necesidad de abordar la problemática del financiamiento para el desarrollo de los países de ingreso medio, que se ha caracterizado por la creciente disociación entre el ingreso per cápita y la capacidad de movilizar recursos internos y externos, así como por la desconexión entre las necesidades económicas y sociales y la respuesta de la cooperación multilateral. Esto debe abordarse con urgencia, ya que los países de América Latina y el Caribe deben recuperarse de los efectos de la pandemia y evitar otra década perdida.
Los países de ingreso medio, como …
United States trade is showing a healthy recovery in 2021 in both imports and exports of goods and services, although some categories of services are still suffering the effects of the COVID-19 pandemic restrictions. Travel, transport, and tourism have not returned to pre-pandemic levels. In contrast, trade in goods has recovered in all major categories.
United States-Latin America and the Caribbean Trade Developments 2021 provides an overview of developments in United States trade relations with Latin America and the Caribbean. Following the global focus on the climate crisis and the specific…
This paper proposes to develop a balance-of-payments-constrained growth model to analyse the importance of the relationship between real exchange rate misalignment and the share of industry in output. Building on the work of Gabriel, Jayme and Oreiro (2016), the model is expanded to address: (i) the influence of price competitiveness on net exports; (ii) capital mobility; (iii) nominal exchange rate flexibility; (iv) the nominal wage as a fraction of the value of labour productivity; and (v) a quadratic relationship between the growth rate of the share of industry in output and exchange-rate m…
En este artículo se propone desarrollar un modelo de crecimiento restringido por la balanza de pagos con el objetivo de analizar la importancia de la relación entre la desalineación del tipo de cambio real y la participación de la industria en el producto. A partir del trabajo de Gabriel, Jayme y Oreiro (2016) se amplía el modelo
con la finalidad de abordar: i) la influencia de la competitividad de los precios en las exportaciones netas; ii) la movilidad de capitales; iii) la flexibilidad del tipo de cambio nominal; iv) el salario nominal como fracción del valor de la productividad del trabajo…
Tax exemption has been used systematically in Brazil to stimulate the economy. In 2009, in an attempt to stem the economic slowdown, the Brazilian government adopted a countercyclical economic policy that included lowering taxes on vehicle prices. Why was this sector chosen rather than another? This article seeks to analyse the effects of this policy on the Brazilian economy in 2009, using as a counterfactual a tax exemption policy targeted on the agriculture sector. Based on an interregional computable general equilibrium model (TERM-BR), the two policies are simulated and compared. The resul…
La exención tributaria se ha utilizado sistemáticamente en el Brasil para estimular la economía. En 2009, en un intento por contener la desaceleración económica, el Gobierno brasileño adoptó una política económica anticíclica, en la que se destacó la exención tributaria a los precios de los vehículos. ¿Por qué se escogió ese sector
y no otro? Este artículo busca analizar los efectos de esa política sobre la economía brasileña en 2009, comparándola con una política de exención tributaria focalizada en el sector agropecuario. Sobre la base de un modelo de equilibrio general computable interregio…
Based on the hypothesis that the rules of monetary and fiscal policy in Brazil may have been subject to different regimes, the present study applies the Leeper model (1991 and 2005) to identify the chronology of policy regimes in terms of their active and passive character. The policy rules are estimated using the Markov-switching model, with a monthly database from November 2002 to December 2015, in which the regimes are endogenously determined. The results obtained indicate that fiscal dominance occurred in 2010 and between 2013 and 2014, while monetary dominance marked much of 2003 and the …
A partir de la hipótesis de que las reglas de política monetaria y fiscal en el Brasil pueden haber estado sujetas a diferentes regímenes, en este estudio se utiliza el modelo de Leeper (1991 y 2005) para establecer la cronología de las reglas de política en cuanto a su carácter activo o pasivo. Las reglas de política se estiman mediante el modelo de cambio de Markov, con una base de datos mensuales de noviembre de 2002 a diciembre de 2015, en que los regímenes se generan de manera endógena. Los resultados obtenidos permiten afirmar que hubo dominancia
fiscal en 2010 y entre 2013 y 2014. La do…
The Latin American Economic Outlook 2021: Working Together for a Better Recovery aims to analyse and provide policy recommendations for a strong, inclusive and environmentally sustainable recovery in the region. The report explores policy actions to improve social protection mechanisms and increase social inclusion, foster regional integration and strengthen industrial strategies, and rethink the social contract to restore trust and empower citizens at all stages of the policy‑making process. Moreover, it stresses the need to promote sustainable and adapted macro‑economic frameworks to finance…
Employment Situation in Latin America and the Caribbean is a twice-yearly report prepared jointly by the Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean (ECLAC) and the Office for the Southern Cone of Latin America of the International Labour Organization (ILO).
In its last edition, the two United Nations organizations analyze the effects of the crisis caused by the coronavirus disease (COVID-19) pandemic in the region’s labour markets during 2020 and 2021, and they stress the importance of the policies implemented by countries to mitigate this impact. According to the report, in 2021 …
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