This document was prepared by the Economic Projections Centre, under the supervision of Hubert Escaith, Director of the Statistics and Economic Projections Division of the ECLAC. André Hofman, Chief of the Economic Projections Centre (ECP), was in charge of technical coordination and for conducting the study. The assistance of the national and subregional offices and of the ECLAC Economic Development Division was much appreciated. The views expressed in this document, which have not been formally edited, are the sole responsibility of the working group and do not necessarily reflect the vi…
This document was prepared by Helvia Velloso, consultant of the United Nations Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean, ECLAC, Washington Office.
Prepared as a support to the document Shaping the Future of Social Protection: Access, Financing and Solidarity presented in the XXXI ECLAC Session Period carried out in Montevideo, Uruguay during March, 20 to 24, 2006.
The views expressed in this document, which has been reproduced without formal editing, are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the views of the Organization.
Introduction
In response to …
This document was prepared by Inés Bustillo, Helvia Velloso and François Y. Vezina, consultants of the United Nations Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean, ECLAC, Washington Office. Prepared as a support to the document Shaping the Future of Social Protection: Access, Financing and Solidarity presented in the XXXI ECLAC Session Period carried out in Montevideo, Uruguay during March, 20 to 24, 2006. The views expressed in this document, which has been reproduced without formal editing, are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the views of the…
This document was prepared by Oliver Paddison, Associate Economic Affairs Officer in the Economic Development Unit of the Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean (ECLAC), Subregional Headquarters for the Caribbean. Prepared as a support to the document Shaping the Future of Social Protection: Access, Financing and Solidarity presented in the XXXI ECLAC Session Period carried out in Montevideo, Uruguay during March, 20 to 24, 2006. The views expressed in this document, which has been reproduced without formal editing, are those of the author and do not necess…
Abstract
This paper presents three demographic models useful for projections of social sector demand. The first model is a probabilistic national population forecast based on the collective experience of UN member states. It offers a set of probabilistic forecasts as a complement to the official UN scenario forecasts. The second model forecasts the population by age and educational level using data from a single census. Forecasts are presented for Chile which show dramatic changes in the educational composition of the elderly population and in the working-age population in the near future. The…