Brazil's electoral outlook and the external backdrop were the main drivers of Latin American credits in the third quarter of 2002, thus the performance of Latin American markets continued to be pressured by Brazil's fate and the ebb and flow of investors' risk appetite. The region had a rare month of outperformance in August, as the prompt negotiation of an IMF agreement for Brazil and the moderation of global risk aversion brought strong returns for Brazil, in particular, and for countries considered high-risks in general. However, risk aversion peaked again in September, retur…
In the third quarter of 2003, investors continued to favor riskier assets buoyed by abundant global liquidity, low interest rates in mature markets, strong economic growth (with low inflation), and improving credit quality. Credit spreads in emerging and Latin American markets narrowed in response, by 41 and 56 basis points, respectively, and are near historical lows in most emerging market countries. The EMBI+ index is well below its long run average, according to J.P Morgan. Issuers in emerging markets and Latin America benefited from the decline in spreads, as well as from the greater inter…
La presente edición del Estudio económico de América Latina y el Caribe, publicación anual que aparece cada año desde 1948, consta de tres partes y dos anexos estadísticos. En la primera parte se examinan los principales aspectos de la economía regional desde una perspectiva sectorial y temática. El primer capítulo, dedicado a la situación en el primer semestre de 2003 y a las perspectivas para el conjunto del año, constituye una versión corregida de la ya publicada con el título Situación y perspectivas 2003. En el segundo capítulo se analiza la evolución de la economía regional en 2002 …
In the first half of 2003, emerging debt markets rallied, as disillusionment with equities, geopolitical concerns, and doubts about growth prospects led investors to shift from equities in favor of fixed incomes securities. As equity prices in the United States struggled early in the year, and the price of U.S. Treasuries rose to a 40-year high, attention was drawn to emerging market assets. Emerging debt markets were driven by liquidity, rising risk tolerance, a search for yield and a wider investor acceptance of the asset class. As a consequence, credit spreads on emerging market bonds narr…
In the second quarter of 2002, conditions in global financial markets worsened as investor confidence deteriorated and risk aversion heightened. The revelation of corporate accounting irregularities in mature markets negatively affected investors' sentiment, causing a rebalance of portfolios in favor of higher quality assets and away from equities and low-grade bonds. Countries seen as higher risk were adversely affected by this rebalancing of portfolios. A number of Latin American countries were the focus of investors' concerns, in particular Brazil, where developments during the se…
With the first signals of a global economic recovery, prospects for private capital flows to emerging markets improved in the first quarter of 2002. Despite the concerns over corporate accounting practices in the U.S. and the deepening of the economic and financial crisis in Argentina, emerging equity and bond markets have outperformed those in industrialized countries. Emerging market equities and bonds in the first quarter of the year continued to show the strong performance that started in the fourth quarter of last year. The overall JP Morgan Chase EMBI+ excluding Argentina rose about 20%…
Foreword The 1990s were unquestionably a time of transition and reorientation in several aspects of Latin America and the Caribbean's economic, social and political development. As in any period with these characteristics, the effects of long-standing processes mingled and interacted with incipient change. When the decade ended, ECLAC wished to contribute to the evaluation of the main events that marked the consolidation of reform in the region, recognizing of course that the speed of progress varied from country to country and from sector to sector. This publication offers an analysis of…
The emerging markets debt class entered 2003 in sound shape. Similar to 2002, emerging markets debt finished the first quarter of 2003 as the top performer over all other fixed income asset classes, as well as equity markets. The downside risks for the global recovery, uncertainty about the length of the war with Iraq, and the deteriorating economic outlook in the US and Europe actually contributed to highlight the benefits of diversification into emerging markets. The flow of funds into emerging debt markets was a major factor pushing spreads down during the quarter. These inflows were drive…
The fourth quarter of 2002 saw an increase in investor optimism, especially in October and November. The combination of declining risk aversion and a technically well-positioned market caused a rally in emerging debt markets. In Latin America, markets traded strongly following the elections in Brazil and Ecuador. Brazil enjoyed a dramatic improvement in investor sentiment after the elections, supported by the new government's commitments to continue fiscal and economic reforms, as well as the global easing of credit conditions . Although sovereign spreads remained wide, Brazilian borrower…
Abstract
This article studies the currency risk management of multinational companies with investments in Latin American countries. The analysis is centred on episodes of currency or financial shocks, searching into the behaviour of the financial management of a firm expecting a significant devaluation. This allowed us to explore the interaction and transmission mechanisms between the microeconomic behaviour and the macroeconomic impact on the foreign exchange market. The analysis was carried out interviewing financial managers of multinational companies from different sectors with headquarter…
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