CEPAL Review no. 132. Special Issue. COVID-19 and the socioeconomic crisis in Latin America and the Caribbean

Revista CEPAL no. 132 - Edición Especial. El COVID-19 y la crisis socioeconómica en América Latina y el Caribe

Nota editorial .-- Presentación. Economía global y desarrollo en tiempos de pandemia: los retos para América Latina y el Caribe / Alicia Bárcena y Mario Cimoli, editores invitados .-- Asimetrías estructurales y crisis sanitaria: el imperativo de una recuperación transformadora para el desarrollo sostenible en América Latina y el Caribe / Alicia Bárcena y Mario Cimoli .-- La crisis del COVID-19 de América Latina con una perspectiva histórica / José Antonio Ocampo .-- Construir un multilateralismo favorable al desarrollo: hacia un “nuevo” nuevo orden económico internacional / Ha-Joon Chang .-- E…

Structural asymmetries and the health crisis: the imperative of a transformative recovery for the advancement of sustainable development in Latin America and the Caribbean

This article underscores the pressing need to transition to a new development model in Latin America and the Caribbean as the region strives to cope with the current health emergency. Statistics show that the Latin American and Caribbean region has been hit harder by the pandemic than any other and that it has also sustained the most damage in economic and social terms. This is attributable to long-standing structural factors that set the stage for the emergence of its present dysfunctional development pattern. The region grew by a scant 0.4% per year between 2014 and 2019 against the backdrop…

Asimetrías estructurales y crisis sanitaria: el imperativo de una recuperación transformadora para el desarrollo sostenible en América Latina y el Caribe

En este artículo se plantea la urgencia de avanzar hacia un nuevo modelo de desarrollo en América Latina y el Caribe ante la crisis sanitaria actual. Las estadísticas indican que la región ha sido la más afectada por la pandemia y también la más dañada en términos económicos y sociales. Esto se debe a factores estructurales de larga data que han prefigurado su disfuncional estilo de desarrollo. La región creció a un exiguo 0,4% anual entre 2014 y 2019, en un contexto de profundización de la brecha de productividad externa, heterogeneidad estructural, senderos de baja productividad y un progres…

The COVID-19 crisis in Latin America in historical perspective

This essay compares the COVID-19 crisis in Latin America with two long-lasting crises (the Great Depression and the debt crisis) and two more recent and shorter ones (the 1997 Asian crisis and the 2008–2009 North Atlantic crisis). The analysis indicates that almost all external shocks, whether associated with external financing, the terms of trade, trade volumes or remittances, have been weaker during the current crisis. What has mainly been lacking is international financial cooperation. The severity of the crisis has therefore been due more to domestic factors: the fact that the region was t…

La crisis del COVID-19 de América Latina con una perspectiva histórica

En este ensayo se compara la crisis del COVI9-19 en América Latina con dos crisis de larga duración (la Gran Depresión y la crisis de la deuda) y dos más recientes y menos prolongadas (la crisis asiática de 1997 y la crisis del Atlántico Norte de 2008-2009). En el análisis se indica que casi todas las perturbaciones de origen externo, asociadas al financiamiento externo, los términos de intercambio, el volumen de comercio y las remesas, han sido menos extremas durante la crisis actual. La principal deficiencia ha sido la limitada cooperación financiera internacional. Por este motivo, la graved…

The COVID-19 crisis and the structural problems of Latin America and the Caribbean: responding to the emergency with a long-term perspective

The economies of Latin America and the Caribbean have been slipping behind in the global economy, weighed down by structural problems that hinder their capacity to grow and absorb technology. The coronavirus disease (COVID-19) pandemic has not only brought these structural problems into sharper relief, but has also exacerbated them, by reinforcing adverse trends in growth, employment and income distribution. This article analyses these trends and argues that the crisis requires a response that is both immediate but also aims to overcome long-term constraints. Very robust fiscal policies are ne…

La crisis del COVID-19 y los problemas estructurales de América Latina y el Caribe: responder a la urgencia con una perspectiva de largo plazo

Las economías de América Latina y el Caribe han venido rezagándose en la economía mundial, lo que constituye un reflejo de problemas estructurales que comprometen su capacidad de crecimiento y de absorción de la tecnología. La pandemia de enfermedad por coronavirus (COVID-19) no solo ha visibilizado esos problemas estructurales, sino que los ha exacerbado, y ha reforzado las tendencias negativas en el crecimiento, el empleo y la distribución de los ingresos. El artículo analiza dichas tendencias y plantea que la crisis hace necesaria una respuesta inmediata, que debe, al mismo tiempo, apuntar …

A stock-flow approach to investment requirements within balance-of-payments constrained growth

According to the balance-of-payments constrained growth model, an expansion of aggregate domestic demand is effective in increasing the long-run rate of growth of an economy to the extent that the performance of the external sector validates it. While the performance of the domestic economy is intertwined with that of the external sector, the balance-of-payments constraint on growth does not make these relationships explicit. This document addresses this issue and proposes a framework to make explicit the investment requirements with balance-of-payments constrained growth. This is done in two …

U.S. Economic Outlook–Third Quarter 2020

The U.S. economy expanded at a 33.1% annual rate in the third quarter; market projections suggest a decline of about 4% in 2020. The pandemic has created unprecedented volatility in economic growth this year, with the record-shattering decline in real GDP in the second quarter followed by a similarly record-breaking gain in the third. The U.S. economic expansion in the third quarter of 2020 followed a decrease of 31.4% in the second quarter and 5% in the first, with the third-quarter gain reversing about 75% of the prior decline. Economic forecasts project a slowdown in the final qu…

Balance Preliminar de las Economías de América Latina y el Caribe 2020

Latin America and the Caribbean Will Have Positive Growth in 2021, but It Will Not Be Enough to Recover Pre-Pandemic Levels of Economic Activity

The Latin America and the Caribbean region will experience a contraction of -7.7% in 2020 but will have a positive growth rate of 3.7% in 2021, due mainly to a statistical rebound that will nonetheless be insufficient for recovering the economic activity levels seen prior to the coronavirus pandemic (in 2019), ECLAC indicated today in a new report. ECLAC released its Preliminary Overview of the Economies of Latin America and the Caribbean 2020 – one of the United Nations organization’s flagship annual reports – during a virtual press conference given by its Executive Secretary, Alicia Bárcena.…

América Latina y el Caribe tendrá crecimiento positivo en 2021, pero no alcanzará para recuperar los niveles de actividad económica pre-pandemia

La región de América Latina y el Caribe marcará una contracción de -7,7% en 2020, pero tendrá una tasa de crecimiento positiva de 3,7% en 2021, debido principalmente a un rebote estadístico que, sin embargo, no alcanzará para recuperar los niveles de actividad económica pre-pandemia del coronavirus (en 2019), indicó hoy la CEPAL en un nuevo informe. La CEPAL dio a conocer su Balance Preliminar de las Economías de América Latina y el Caribe 2020, uno de los principales reportes anuales del organismo de las Naciones Unidas, en una conferencia de prensa virtual ofrecida por su Secretaria Ejecutiv…

A América Latina e o Caribe terão crescimento positivo em 2021, mas não será suficiente para recuperar os níveis de atividade econômica pré-pandemia

A região da América Latina e Caribe terá uma contração de -7,7% em 2020, mas terá uma taxa de crescimento positiva de 3,7% em 2021, devido principalmente a um arraste estatístico que, no entanto, não será suficiente para recuperar os níveis de atividade econômica pré-pandemia do coronavírus (em 2019), indicou hoje a CEPAL em um novo relatório. A CEPAL divulgou seu Balanço Preliminar das Economias da América Latina e do Caribe 2020, um dos principais relatórios anuais da Comissão das Nações Unidas, em uma coletiva de imprensa virtual apresentada por sua Secretária-Executiva, Alicia Bárcena. Se…

Launch of the Preliminary Overview of the Economies of Latin America and the Caribbean 2020

Lanzamiento Balance Preliminar de las Economías de América Latina y el Caribe 2020

U.S. Economic Outlook: Third Quarter 2020

The U.S. economy expanded at a 33.1% annual rate in the third quarter of 2020, following a decline of 31.4% in the second quarter and 5% in the first. The third-quarter gain reversed about 75% of the prior decline. The pandemic has created unprecedented volatility in economic growth this year, with the record-shattering decline in real GDP in the second quarter followed by a similarly record-breaking gain in the third. Economic forecasts project a slowdown in the final quarter of the year, however, because of the recent surge in COVID-19 cases and some tighter restrictions that have been imple…

ECLAC Will Update its Economic Growth Estimates for the Region’s Countries in 2020 and Provide New Projections for 2021

The Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean (ECLAC) will present next Wednesday, December 16 its flagship annual report entitled Preliminary Overview of the Economies of Latin America and the Caribbean 2020, which examines the performance of the region’s economies this year and updates growth figures and other indicators that reflect the impact countries have borne as a result of the COVID-19 crisis. More specifically, the document will contain new Gross Domestic Product (GDP) estimates for the region and all of its countries in 2020, and it will provide a first growth estimate…

CEPAL actualizará sus estimaciones de crecimiento económico de los países de la región en 2020 y entregará nuevas proyecciones para 2021

La Comisión Económica para América Latina y el Caribe (CEPAL) presentará el próximo miércoles 16 de diciembre su informe anual (flagship) Balance Preliminar de las Economías de América Latina y el Caribe 2020, en el cual examina el comportamiento de las economías de la región durante el año, y actualiza las cifras de crecimiento y otros indicadores que reflejan el impacto sufrido por los países de la región a raíz de la crisis del COVID-19. En particular, el documento presentará nuevas estimaciones del producto interno bruto (PIB) para la región y todos sus países en 2020, y entregará una prim…

CEPAL atualizará suas estimativas de crescimento econômico dos países da região em 2020 e apresentará novas projeções para 2021

A Comissão Econômica para a América Latina e o Caribe (CEPAL) apresentará na próxima quarta-feira, 16 de dezembro, o seu relatório anual: Balanço Preliminar das Economias da América Latina e do Caribe 2020, em que examina o comportamento das economias da região durante o ano, e atualiza os números de crescimento e outros indicadores que refletem o impacto sofrido pelos países da região em decorrência da crise da COVID-19. O documento apresentará principalmente as novas estimativas do produto interno bruto (PIB) para a região e todos os seus países em 2020, e mostrará uma primeira estimativa de…