CEPAL Review no. 139

Pass-through of exchange rate shocks in Brazil as a small open economy

An econometric model is used to analyse pass-through from the exchange rate to inflation, considering the monetary policy instrument variable, the target variable, the level of economic activity, the level of credit and the exchange rate. This system is exogenously affected by commodity prices, the level of external sector activity and the uncertainty perceived by international investors. Using vector error correction models, we find greater pass-through to administered prices than to free prices and a marked asymmetry characterized by stronger exchange rate pass-through when the domestic curr…

Traspaso de los choques del tipo de cambio en el Brasil como pequeña economía abierta

Se analiza, mediante un modelo econométrico, el traspaso del tipo de cambio a la inflación, considerando la variable instrumento de la política monetaria, la variable objetivo, el nivel de actividad económica, el nivel de crédito y el tipo de cambio. Este sistema se ve afectado exógenamente por los precios de los productos básicos, el nivel de actividad del sector externo y la incertidumbre percibida por los inversionistas internacionales. Utilizando modelos vectoriales de corrección de errores, observamos un mayor traspaso a los precios administrados que a los precios libres y una marcada asi…

Balance Preliminar de las Economías de América Latina y el Caribe 2022

En su edición 2022, el Balance Preliminar de las Economías de América Latina y el Caribe examina el comportamiento de las economías de la región durante el presente año y actualiza las estimaciones de crecimiento y otros indicadores económicos que reflejan el impacto sufrido por los países de la región a raíz de la crisis del COVID-19 y su posterior recuperación. En particular, este informe anual presenta nuevas estimaciones del producto interno bruto (PIB) para la región y todos sus países en 2022 y proyecciones para 2023. El documento analiza la dinámica económica y social del año que recién…

Claves de la CEPAL para el desarrollo Nº 14: Balance Preliminar de las Economías de América Latina y el Caribe 2022

Los países de América Latina y el Caribe enfrentan un panorama económico desafiante en 2023. En el frente externo se espera una mayor desaceleración tanto del crecimiento como del comercio mundial, precios de productos básicos más bajos que en 2022 y condiciones financieras a nivel mundial que seguirán influidas por la aversión al riesgo y las políticas monetarias restrictivas en los países desarrollados.…

Report of the twenty-ninth session of the Caribbean Development and Cooperation Committee of the Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean

United States economic outlook: third quarter of 2022

The United States economy grew by 2.9% in the third quarter of 2022, a sharp turnaround following two quarters of contraction. Trade was the main source of growth, followed by consumer spending. The labour market averaged 392,000 new jobs per month from January–November 2022, with 4.3 million new jobs created in the period. Inflation rose by 7.1% in November, the slowest 12-month pace since December 2021, closing out a year in which it climbed to the highest level in four decades. The rapid pace of price increases in 2022 added pressure on the Federal Reserve to tame inflation by raising inter…

Caribbean Outlook 3: Economic recovery and repositioning in the era of COVID-19. Policy Brief

The economies of the subregion were hard hit by the COVID-19 pandemic, particularly those dependent on tourism. As a result, the Caribbean has seen a reversal of the hard-won gains achieved in growing their economies and reducing unemployment and inequality. The inflation stemming from pandemic supply chain disruption, which has been exacerbated by the war in Ukraine, has made the sustained uptick in economic performance beyond pre-pandemic levels unlikely, notwithstanding strong growth estimates for 2021 and 2022. The last two years have taught the region that continued ‘business as usual’ is…

The Hummingbird Vol. 10 No. 1

Revista CEPAL no. 138

Documento actualizado el 15 de febrero de 2023.…

New Study by ECLAC Analyzes the Impacts of the War in Ukraine on Uruguay’s Economy

What impact has the war in Ukraine had on the Uruguayan economy? A new publication of the Studies and Perspectives Series of ECLAC’s Office in Montevideo analyzes these precise effects. The study entitled Economic Impacts of the War in Ukraine: A View from the Region and Uruguay (in Spanish only) verifies initially that this war represents a crisis of major proportions that overlaps with others that are also very significant, such as the financial crisis of 2008 and the pandemic crisis – which constitute what ECLAC has called a “cascade of crises.” As a result, the world and Latin America and …

Nuevo estudio de la CEPAL analiza los impactos de la guerra en Ucrania sobre la economía de Uruguay

¿Cuáles fueron los impactos de la guerra de Ucrania sobre la economía uruguaya? Una nueva publicación de la Serie Investigaciones y Perspectivas de la Oficina de la CEPAL en Montevideo analiza dichos efectos. La investigación titulada Impactos económicos de la guerra en Ucrania: Una mirada desde la región y el Uruguay constata inicialmente que esta guerra representa una crisis de grandes proporciones que se superpone a otras también muy significativas, como la crisis financiera del 2008 y la crisis de la pandemia –que representan lo que la CEPAL ha llamado una “cascada de crisis”. Como …

Novo estudo da CEPAL analisa os impactos da guerra na Ucrânia sobre a economia do Uruguai

Quais foram os impactos da guerra na Ucrânia sobre a economia uruguaia? Uma nova publicação da Série Pesquisas e Perspectivas do Escritório da CEPAL em Montevidéu analisa esses efeitos. A pesquisa intitulada Impactos econômicos da guerra na Ucrânia: uma visão a partir da região e do Uruguai (em espanhol) constata inicialmente que esta guerra representa uma crise de grandes proporções que se superpõe a outras também muito significativas, como a crise financeira de 2008 e a crise da pandemia, que representam o que a CEPAL chama de uma “cascata de crises”. Como resultado, o mundo e a América Lat…

Economies of Latin America and the Caribbean Will Decelerate in 2023 and Will Grow by 1.3%

In a context of external uncertainties and domestic restrictions, the countries of Latin America and the Caribbean will grow by 3.7% in 2022, just over half of the 6.7% rate recorded in 2021. It is estimated that the deceleration in economic growth will intensify in 2023, giving rise to a 1.3% rate. According to its Preliminary Overview of the Economies of Latin America and the Caribbean 2022 – unveiled by the Executive Secretary of the Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean (ECLAC), José Manuel Salazar-Xirinachs – the monetary policy responses adopted worldwide in 2022, in a …

Economías de América Latina y el Caribe se desacelerarán en 2023 y crecerán 1,3%

En un contexto de incertidumbres externas y restricciones internas, los países de América Latina y el Caribe crecerán un 3,7% en 2022, poco más de la mitad de la tasa del 6,7% registrada en 2021. Se estima que en 2023 se profundice la desaceleración del crecimiento económico y se alcance una tasa del 1,3%. De acuerdo con el Balance Preliminar de las Economías de América Latina y el Caribe 2022, dado a conocer por el Secretario Ejecutivo de la Comisión Económica para América Latina y el Caribe (CEPAL), José Manuel Salazar-Xirinachs, las respuestas de política monetaria adoptadas a nivel …

As economias da América Latina e do Caribe se desacelerarão em 2023 e crescerão 1,3%

Num contexto de incertezas externas e restrições internas, os países da região crescerão 3,7% em 2022, pouco mais da metade da taxa de 6,7% registrada em 2021. Estima-se que em 2023 se aprofunde a desaceleração do crescimento econômico e se alcance uma taxa de 1,3%. De acordo com o Balanço Preliminar das Economias da América Latina e do Caribe 2022, divulgado pelo Secretário Executivo da Comissão Econômica para a América Latina e o Caribe (CEPAL), José Manuel Salazar-Xirinachs, as respostas de política monetária adotadas mundialmente em 2022, num contexto de aumento da inflação global, provoca…

Preliminary Overview of the Economies of Latin America and the Caribbean 2022

The 2022 edition of Preliminary Overview of the Economies of Latin America and the Caribbean examines the behavior of the region’s economies over the current year and updates estimates for growth and other economic indicators that reflect the impact of the COVID-19 crisis on the region’s countries along with their subsequent recovery. Specifically, this annual report presents new Gross Domestic Product (GDP) estimates for the region and all of its countries in 2022 as well as projections for 2023. The document analyzes the economic and social dynamics of the year that is about to end and discu…

Balanço Preliminar das Economias da América Latina e do Caribe 2022. Resumo executivo

A atividade econômica da América Latina e do Caribe em 2022 apresenta uma taxa de crescimento superior à esperada durante o primeiro semestre do ano e desaceleração durante o segundo semestre. A desaceleração observada na segunda metade de 2022 se manterá em 2023, permitindo prever que no próximo ano a taxa de crescimento será significativamente menor que a de 2022.…

Preliminary Overview of the Economies of Latin America and the Caribbean 2022

Balance Preliminar de las Economías de América Latina y el Caribe 2022