The United States economy grew by 2.1% in 2022. Consumer spending was the main driver of growth. The economic outlook improved in the second half of 2022, following two quarters of negative growth, and this momentum has carried over into early 2023. The labour market was strong in 2022 and continued to show strength in early 2023. Inflation rose to 8% in 2022, the highest annual level in four decades, but slowed to 5% in March 2023. The Federal Reserve approved nine interest rate increases between March 2022 and March 2023 to tame inflation. March 2023 saw heightened market stress owing to ban…
An econometric model is used to analyse pass-through from the exchange rate to inflation, considering the monetary policy instrument variable, the target variable, the level of economic activity, the level of credit and the exchange rate. This system is exogenously affected by commodity prices, the level of external sector activity and the uncertainty perceived by international investors. Using vector error correction models, we find greater pass-through to administered prices than to free prices and a marked asymmetry characterized by stronger exchange rate pass-through when the domestic curr…
Se analiza, mediante un modelo econométrico, el traspaso del tipo de cambio a la inflación, considerando la variable instrumento de la política monetaria, la variable objetivo, el nivel de actividad económica, el nivel de crédito y el tipo de cambio. Este sistema se ve afectado exógenamente por los precios de los productos básicos, el nivel de actividad del sector externo y la incertidumbre percibida por los inversionistas internacionales. Utilizando modelos vectoriales de corrección de errores, observamos un mayor traspaso a los precios administrados que a los precios libres y una marcada asi…
En este documento se presenta un balance preliminar de las economías de Centroamérica (Costa Rica, El Salvador, Guatemala, Honduras, Nicaragua y Panamá) y la República Dominicana (CARD) en 2022 y se presentan las perspectivas para 2023. Es un análisis de coyuntura elaborado por la Unidad de Desarrollo Económico de la sede subregional de la Comisión Económica para América Latina y el Caribe (CEPAL) en México, con información disponible al 31 de enero de 2023.…
Latin American and Caribbean issuers placed US$ 64 billion in bonds on international bond markets in 2022, the smallest annual amount since 2008. In January 2023, sovereign and corporate bond issuers from the region placed almost US$ 17 billion in international bonds, a sizable improvement from the last few months of 2022, but a weaker January issuance than in previous years.
The region’s international bond issuance of green, social, sustainability and sustainability-linked (GSSS) bonds followed the broader market trend of declining bond activity owing to worsening macroeconomic conditions. Th…
This survey examines the economic performance of economies of the Caribbean in 2021 and the first few months of 2022 and comprises five chapters. The first chapter gives an overview of global, regional and subregional economic performance in the Caribbean. The second provides an analysis of the subregion’s fiscal performance and debt burden. The third looks at monetary policy and their impacts. The fourth is focused on the external sector, while the fifth concludes.…
En este libro se presenta un análisis comparativo de las respuestas de política de los países en desarrollo de África, Asia y América Latina y el Caribe a los retos que una mayor apertura financiera externa y la flexibilidad de los precios y el tipo de cambio plantean a la estabilidad económica. La mayor apertura externa ha reducido considerablemente el margen normativo de las economías en desarrollo y, al mismo tiempo, ha aumentado el potencial de fragilidad e inestabilidad financieras. Estos retos, que han pasado a un primer plano desde la crisis financiera mundial de 2008-2009, también se m…
This book presents a comparative analysis of the policy responses of developing countries in Africa, Asia and Latin America and the Caribbean to the challenges that greater external financial openness and price and exchange-rate flexibility pose to economic stability. Greater external openness has significantly narrowed developing economies’ policy space, while at the same time increasing the potential for financial fragility and instability. These challenges, which have come to the fore since the global financial crisis of 2008–2009, are also manifest in the profound impact of the COVID-19 pa…
The United States economy grew by 2.9% in the third quarter of 2022, a sharp turnaround following two quarters of contraction. Trade was the main source of growth, followed by consumer spending. The labour market averaged 392,000 new jobs per month from January–November 2022, with 4.3 million new jobs created in the period. Inflation rose by 7.1% in November, the slowest 12-month pace since December 2021, closing out a year in which it climbed to the highest level in four decades. The rapid pace of price increases in 2022 added pressure on the Federal Reserve to tame inflation by raising inter…
United States economic outlook: third quarter of 2022
The United States economy rose 2.9% in the third quarter of 2022, a sharp turnaround following two quarters of contraction. Here is the economic outlook in five charts:…
O presente relatório O Investimento Estrangeiro Direto na América Latina e no Caribe é a edição correspondente a 2022 da série anual publicada pela Comissão Econômica para a América Latina e o Caribe (CEPAL).
Num contexto de fraca recuperação econômica, a América Latina e o Caribe receberam 142,794 bilhões de dólares de investimento estrangeiro direto (IED) em 2021, 40,7% mais que em 2020; porém, este crescimento não foi suficiente para alcançar os níveis registrados antes da pandemia. Em todo o mundo, os montantes de IED aumentaram 64% em 2021, alcançando aproximadamente 1,6 trilhão de dólar…
After breaking an annual record in 2021, total Latin American and Caribbean (LAC) bond issuance in international markets has slowed considerably in 2022.…
Against a backdrop of tightening global financing conditions and higher global borrowing costs, Latin American and Caribbean issuers placed US$ 58.5 billion in bonds on international markets from January to October 2022, around 60% less than in the same period of 2021, with an average coupon almost 1.5% higher. The region’s international issuance of environmental, social and governance (ESG) bonds followed the broader market downturn in bond activity, particularly in the corporate sector, owing to worse macroeconomic conditions; however, it showed some resilience, slowing less markedly than ov…
En el marco de la cuarta revolución tecnológica, incluyendo las innovaciones disruptivas que esta impulsa, las tecnologías de la información y las comunicaciones (TIC) y la digitalización parecen ser indispensables para que los países puedan aprovechar estos avances de forma transversal. Así, el acceso equitativo a internet y otras tecnologías digitales es indispensable no solo para el desarrollo de los países, sino también para reducir las diferencias socioeconómicas con la llegada de nuevas tecnologías. Este análisis adquiere aún mayor relevancia ante las condiciones del COVID-19.
Con una vi…
We analyse the desirability of allowing cooperative banks to participate in the interbank market in Chile. We find that it is advisable to allow this if the quality of their governance is not too deficient relative to that of traditional commercial banks. When cooperative banks do participate in the interbank market, both the probability of financial crises and the volatility of gross domestic product (GDP) rise. However, because the inclusion of cooperatives generates large efficiency gains in the financial sector, both GDP and aggregate welfare substantially increase. We conclude that there …
Analizamos la conveniencia de permitir que los bancos cooperativos participen en el mercado interbancario en Chile. Consideramos que es aconsejable permitirlo si la calidad de su gobernanza no es demasiado deficiente en relación con la de los bancos comerciales tradicionales. Cuando los bancos cooperativos participan en el mercado interbancario, aumentan tanto la probabilidad de crisis financieras como la volatilidad del producto interior bruto (PIB). Sin embargo, puesto que incluir a las cooperativas genera grandes ganancias de eficiencia en el sector financiero, tanto el PIB como el bienesta…
This study decomposes the factors that determined inflation in Chile during the period 2000–2021. It finds that the main determinants of domestic inflation were variables of external origin and the exchange rate. Domestic demand played a rather limited role as an inflationary factor. In normal periods, increases in domestic demand generally explained no more than 25% of observed inflation. The average monthly inflation observed during the period 2000–2021 was 0.3%, which means that domestic demand growth in normal periods explained monthly inflation of 0.08%. Surprisingly, the extraordinary pe…
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