Este artículo plantea que en un régimen macroeconómico detipo de cambio real competitivo y estable (tcrce); el componentecambiario puede fomentar la inflación con los mismos mecanismos queestimulan altas tasas de crecimiento del producto interno bruto y delempleo; la presión tendrá que compensarse controlando la demandaagregada a través de las políticas fiscal y monetaria. Encuentra quela política monetaria en un régimen cambiario de ese tipo tiene ungrado de autonomía que puede ser utilizado para aplicar políticasmonetarias activas. Analiza hasta qué punto la política monetaria puedecontribui…
En este artículo se analizan los cambios en la estructura ycompetitividad de la industria de bienes de capital brasileña desdecomienzos de los años 1990 y se propone una clasificación dentrode esta industria basada en los diversos segmentos industriales quedemandan máquinas y equipos. Aunque esta industria sigue pesandobastante en el valor agregado del sector manufacturero, la eficienciaproductiva y la competitividad internacional de los segmentos quela componen son bastante heterogéneas. El artículo destaca lossegmentos con mayor potencial de desarrollo y sugiere para cadauno de ellos medidas…
This article argues that in a stable and competitive real exchangerate(SCRER); macroeconomic regime, the exchange-rate component candrive up inflation through the very mechanisms that stimulate high rates ofgross domestic product and employment growth; to offset this pressure,fiscal and monetary policies will have to be used to control aggregatedemand. It finds that in an exchange-rate regime of this type, monetarypolicy has a degree of autonomy that can be exploited to apply activemonetary policies. It analyses the degree to which monetary policy canbe used to control aggregate demand and con…
This article analyses changes in the structure and competitiveness ofthe Brazilian capital goods industry since the early 1990s and proposes aclassification within that industry based on the different industrial segmentsfrom which the demand for machinery and equipment derives. Althoughthis industry still accounts for a large share of manufacturing sector valueadded, the production efficiency and international competitiveness of thesegments it comprises are quite heterogeneous. The article singles out thesegments with the greatest development potential and suggests measuresthat could be taken …
This essay argues that while the complete lack of liquiditycharacterizing the most severe phase of the financial crisis unleashedin September 2008 is now a thing of the past, lending and productionactivity in the industrialized countries are both contracting rapidly andthe financial system is still undercapitalized. Of all the external channelsthrough which the crisis has been transmitted to Latin America, the dropin remittances is the least important. The most widespread negative effectswill come from the decline in the volume of international trade and thesharp deterioration in the terms of …
The combination of profound technological change and theemergence of powerful competitors such as China and the other briccountries has led to dramatic shifts in competitiveness and a tendencyfor production to be structured around global value chains. Against thisbackground, traditional protectionist threats have reappeared and othershave arisen in connection with new security requirements, private-sectorquality standards, good practices and climate change. These issues areintegral to the new competitive environment but could turn into protectionistbarriers in the absence of the right multilat…
This paper develops and tests a model of growth that emphasizesthe introduction of new exports as the main source of growth in countriesthat are well within the global technology frontier and depend for growthon adapting existing products to their economic environment. It seeks tocapture the stylized facts behind growth in countries as different as theRepublic of Korea, Taiwan Province of China, Mauritius, Finland, Chinaand Chile, all of which have relied on export diversification. The wideningof comparative advantage is thus seen as the main driver of economicgrowth. The export diversificatio…
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