Abstract This paper uses a political economy approach to examine the nature and social impact of Ireland's economic 'miracle', namely the period of high economic growth known as the 'Celtic Tiger', which lasted from 1995 until 2000. Its principal purpose is to offer a broad and multifaceted reading of this period of Irish development, paying particular attention to the links between macroeconomic success and social vulnerability, in order to draw policy lessons for Latin America. The examination of the Celtic Tiger is prefaced by a brief introduction to some of the sa…
Este documento contiene las bases conceptuales y los fundamentos teóricos introductorios para los participantes en el ciclo de cursos del Diplomado sobre Gerencia de Proyectos y Programas .
Ésta es una actividad docente que ofrece el ILPES, a través de su Dirección de Proyectos y Programación de Inversiones, con la colaboración de la Agencia Española de Cooperación Internacional (AECI); y en asociación con la Universidad de Alcalá de Henares, de España. El programa consta de cinco cursos que se dictan en las sedes de los Centros de Formación de la AECI en América Latina, de la Unive…
The Andean countries, a region with abundance of natural resources and other valuable assets, exhibit a variety of governance problems that hinder its potential for social peace, stability and economic prosperity. Their empirical governance record, based on historical and recent data, although varies from country to country has been characterized by political instability, considerable frequency of constitutional reforms, presidential crisis, volatility of democratic institutions and violence. In turn, the empirical evidence on quality of institutions put the Andean region in a relatively modes…
(*);Este documento fue preparado en el Centro de Proyecciones Económicas, bajo la supervisión de Hubert Escaith, Oficial a cargo de la División de Estadística y Proyecciones Económicas de la CEPAL. La coordinación técnica y la realización del estudio estuvo a cargo de André Hofman, Jefe del Centro de Proyecciones Económicas. Gunilla Ryd elaboró el capítulo sobre el marco internacional y André Hofman preparó el capítulo sobre el desempeño reciente y las perspectivas regionales. Esteban Pérez colaboró en el análisis del Caribe. Participaron en la elaboración del estudio y en la preparación del t…
The decline in flows of foreign direct investment (FDI) to Latin America and the Caribbean which began in 2000 grew even sharper in 2002. This trend reflects a major change in the world and regional economies. At the regional level, it is associated with greater instability, slow economic growth and the approaching completion of the privatization process. National crises such as those experienced by Argentina, Uruguay and Venezuela made investors become more risk-averse. Sluggish growth in demand in the United States economy hurt investment in Mexico, Central America and the Caribbean, where…
This paper looks at the evolution of the terms of trade between commodities and manufactures in the twentieth century. A statistical analysis of the relative price series for 24 commodities and eight indices reveals a significant deterioration in their barter terms of trade over the years 1900 to 2000. This decline was not continuous, however, nor was it distributed evenly among individual products. As is shown here, the far-reaching changes that the world economy underwent around 1920 and again around 1980 led to a stepwise deterioration which, over the long term, was reflected in a decline o…
This paper analyses the role assigned to foreign direct investment and transnational corporations in the ECLAC development project, examining the history of the institution and its most representative publications. With impressive continuity in its vision and policy recommendations, ECLAC has recognized the need for foreign investment as an aid for Latin American development, but has been cautious about its consequences. ECLAC has continually called for close scrutiny and regulation of the activities of transnational corporations. The main idea underlying these recommendations is that Latin Am…
The author argues that the effectiveness of poverty alleviation instruments largely depends on how poverty is defined. The aim of reducing absolute poverty chiefly entails a discussion of growth, historically the main factor in this process. If poverty is defined in relative terms, on the other hand, then it is changes in inequality that are the main factor behind variations in its incidence. In any event, the relationship between the two potential sources of poverty reduction is crucial. This article summarizes the growth and distribution implications of growth-oriented policies in the first …
This study presents the initial findings of a household survey dealing with the effects of the Argentine economic crisis on welfare. It also seeks to identify the coping mechanisms and strategies adopted by households in these difficult times. The results obtained confirm the negative image reflected in the macroeconomic indicators, identify the limitations of the different coping mechanisms and reveal serious effects on welfare. The evidence suggests that the effects on the use of health services have been more marked than those on the use of education services.…
Este artículo examina la evolución de los términos de intercambio
entre productos básicos y manufacturas en los años
1900 a 2000. Un análisis estadístico de las series de precios
relativos de 24 productos básicos y ocho índices muestra que
hubo un deterioro marcado de los términos de intercambio de
trueque a lo largo del siglo XX, pero que este deterioro no fue
continuo, ni tampoco homogéneo entre productos. Según se
muestra aquí, las profundas transformaciones que enfrentó la
economía mundial alrededor de 1920 y de 1980 se tradujeron
en un deterioro escalonado, que se reflejó a largo plazo en…
En este artículo se analiza el papel que la CEPAL ha asignado a
la inversión extranjera directa y a las empresas transnacionales
en su propuesta de desarrollo, examinando la historia de la
institución y sus publicaciones más representativas. Con impresionante
continuidad en su visión y en sus recomendaciones
de política, la CEPAL ha reconocido que la inversión extranjera
es necesaria para apuntalar el desarrollo latinoamericano,
pero ha aconsejado cautela ante sus consecuencias. Ha insistido
en la regulación y vigilancia de las actividades de las
transnacionales; tras tales recomendaciones est…
El autor sostiene que la efectividad de los instrumentos para
aliviar la pobreza depende considerablemente de cómo se defina
ésta. El propósito de disminuir la pobreza absoluta implica,
principalmente, una discusión del crecimiento, que ha sido
la fuente principal de su reducción secular. En cambio, si se
define la pobreza en términos relativos, los cambios en la desigualdad
pasan a ser la fuente principal de variaciones en su
incidencia. En cualquier caso, resulta central la relación entre
las dos fuentes potenciales de reducción de la pobreza.
El artículo reseña las implicaciones para el cre…
Este trabajo presenta los resultados iniciales de una encuesta
de hogares realizada para evaluar los efectos sobre el bienestar
de la crisis económica en Argentina. Asimismo, se pretende
identificar los mecanismos y estrategias de supervivencia
adoptados por los hogares durante estos tiempos difíciles. Los
resultados obtenidos confirman la imagen negativa reflejada
en los indicadores macroeconómicos, dan cuenta de las limitaciones
en la eficacia de los distintos mecanismos de supervivencia
y muestran efectos serios sobre el bienestar. La evidencia
sugiere que tales efectos son más marcados en …
This document analyses exchange rate regimes in the Caribbean subregion. Caribbean
exchange rate regimes are typified into hard and soft pegs. Hard pegs refer to those
arrangements that maintain a constant value of the domestic currency in terms of the
currency of a major trading partner. The Organisation of Eastern Caribbean States (OECS);
economies established a monetary union in 1983. The Bahamas, Belize and Barbados also
fixed the value of their domestic currency in relation to the United States dollar in the
middle of the 1970s. Soft pegs are monetary arrangements characterized by a force…
Brazilian labour markets are rather flexible in macroeconomic terms while also displaying microeconomic rigidity. Macroeconomic flexibility is characterized by the significant growth in employment in both good and bad times. Microeconomic rigidity is translated into high turnover rates, frequent litigation, and rising informality. This dichotomous relationship is mediated by the third side of the labour market that can be best represented by labour market institutions. These have contributed to the current state of affairs by means of a rather stringent labour code, rent-seeking labour unions,…
O conhecimento sobre a relação entre pobreza, miséria e os mercados dos quais os pobres fazem parte é bastante limitado na literatura econômica brasileira. A investigação sobre a pobreza concentra-se em questões como as suas causas, distribuição espacial, conceitos e linhas de pobreza, perfil do pobre, dentre outros assuntos, e menos nas questões associadas à natureza e funcionamento dos mercados em que os pobres estão inseridos. De um lado, essa deficiência parece ter relação com as políticas sociais e de combate à pobreza que predominaram no país por muitas décadas, as quais se baseavam em m…
Abstract In this overview we analyse, first, why funds continued to flow towards emerging economies, while fundamentals in host countries had been deteriorating before the Asian crisis (a rising external deficit, with a significant liquid component; appreciating exchange rates; low capital formation, particularly in Latin America), and why funding remains dry for long since 1998; the role of the nature of the predominant agents and of a process of flows rather than one-shot building of stock of foreign capital are stressed. Then, the analysis focuses on the interrelations of capital flows and …
Abstract During the Asian crisis, intermediate exchange rate regimes vanished. It has been argued that those regimes were no longer useful and only the extremes remained valid. The paper analyses three foreign exchange regimes: Argentina (pegged), Chile (band) and Mexico (float). The Argentinean currency board delivered low financial volatility while it was credible, but even then it displayed high real volatility. Mexican float performed well in periods of instability isolating the real sector. The Chilean band delivered a mixed outcome as compared …