This book presents a comparative analysis of the policy responses of developing countries in Africa, Asia and Latin America and the Caribbean to the challenges that greater external financial openness and price and exchange-rate flexibility pose to economic stability. Greater external openness has significantly narrowed developing economies’ policy space, while at the same time increasing the potential for financial fragility and instability. These challenges, which have come to the fore since the global financial crisis of 2008–2009, are also manifest in the profound impact of the COVID-19 pa…
The United States economy grew by 2.9% in the third quarter of 2022, a sharp turnaround following two quarters of contraction. Trade was the main source of growth, followed by consumer spending. The labour market averaged 392,000 new jobs per month from January–November 2022, with 4.3 million new jobs created in the period. Inflation rose by 7.1% in November, the slowest 12-month pace since December 2021, closing out a year in which it climbed to the highest level in four decades. The rapid pace of price increases in 2022 added pressure on the Federal Reserve to tame inflation by raising inter…
United States economic outlook: third quarter of 2022
The United States economy rose 2.9% in the third quarter of 2022, a sharp turnaround following two quarters of contraction. Here is the economic outlook in five charts:…
O presente relatório O Investimento Estrangeiro Direto na América Latina e no Caribe é a edição correspondente a 2022 da série anual publicada pela Comissão Econômica para a América Latina e o Caribe (CEPAL).
Num contexto de fraca recuperação econômica, a América Latina e o Caribe receberam 142,794 bilhões de dólares de investimento estrangeiro direto (IED) em 2021, 40,7% mais que em 2020; porém, este crescimento não foi suficiente para alcançar os níveis registrados antes da pandemia. Em todo o mundo, os montantes de IED aumentaram 64% em 2021, alcançando aproximadamente 1,6 trilhão de dólar…
After breaking an annual record in 2021, total Latin American and Caribbean (LAC) bond issuance in international markets has slowed considerably in 2022.…
Against a backdrop of tightening global financing conditions and higher global borrowing costs, Latin American and Caribbean issuers placed US$ 58.5 billion in bonds on international markets from January to October 2022, around 60% less than in the same period of 2021, with an average coupon almost 1.5% higher. The region’s international issuance of environmental, social and governance (ESG) bonds followed the broader market downturn in bond activity, particularly in the corporate sector, owing to worse macroeconomic conditions; however, it showed some resilience, slowing less markedly than ov…
En el marco de la cuarta revolución tecnológica, incluyendo las innovaciones disruptivas que esta impulsa, las tecnologías de la información y las comunicaciones (TIC) y la digitalización parecen ser indispensables para que los países puedan aprovechar estos avances de forma transversal. Así, el acceso equitativo a internet y otras tecnologías digitales es indispensable no solo para el desarrollo de los países, sino también para reducir las diferencias socioeconómicas con la llegada de nuevas tecnologías. Este análisis adquiere aún mayor relevancia ante las condiciones del COVID-19.
Con una vi…
We analyse the desirability of allowing cooperative banks to participate in the interbank market in Chile. We find that it is advisable to allow this if the quality of their governance is not too deficient relative to that of traditional commercial banks. When cooperative banks do participate in the interbank market, both the probability of financial crises and the volatility of gross domestic product (GDP) rise. However, because the inclusion of cooperatives generates large efficiency gains in the financial sector, both GDP and aggregate welfare substantially increase. We conclude that there …
Analizamos la conveniencia de permitir que los bancos cooperativos participen en el mercado interbancario en Chile. Consideramos que es aconsejable permitirlo si la calidad de su gobernanza no es demasiado deficiente en relación con la de los bancos comerciales tradicionales. Cuando los bancos cooperativos participan en el mercado interbancario, aumentan tanto la probabilidad de crisis financieras como la volatilidad del producto interior bruto (PIB). Sin embargo, puesto que incluir a las cooperativas genera grandes ganancias de eficiencia en el sector financiero, tanto el PIB como el bienesta…
This study decomposes the factors that determined inflation in Chile during the period 2000–2021. It finds that the main determinants of domestic inflation were variables of external origin and the exchange rate. Domestic demand played a rather limited role as an inflationary factor. In normal periods, increases in domestic demand generally explained no more than 25% of observed inflation. The average monthly inflation observed during the period 2000–2021 was 0.3%, which means that domestic demand growth in normal periods explained monthly inflation of 0.08%. Surprisingly, the extraordinary pe…
En este estudio se analizan los factores que determinaron la inflación en Chile durante el período 2000-2021. La conclusión es que principalmente fueron variables de origen externo y el tipo de cambio, y que la demanda interna no tuvo demasiada incidencia, pues, en períodos normales, fue responsable de no más del 25% de la inflación observada. La inflación mensual promedio fue de un 0,3%, lo que implica que el aumento de la demanda interna durante los períodos normales se tradujo en una inflación mensual del 0,08%. Es llamativo que los períodos extraordinarios de rápido aumento de la demanda —…
The 2022 edition of the Economic Survey of Latin America and the Caribbean consists of three parts. Part I outlines the region’s economic performance in 2021 and analyses trends in the early months of 2022, as well as the outlook for growth for the year. It examines the external and domestic factors that have influenced the region’s economic performance in 2021, trends for 2022, and how these factors will affect economic growth in the coming years.
Part II of this edition presents some of the main challenges the region faces in investing for sustainable and inclusive economic growth. It analys…
En su edición 2022, el Estudio Económico de América Latina y el Caribe consta de tres partes. En la primera, se resume el desempeño de la economía regional en 2021 y se analiza su evolución en los primeros meses de 2022, así como las perspectivas de crecimiento para este mismo año. De igual forma, se examinan los factores externos e internos que han incidido en el desempeño económico de la región en 2021 y su evolución en 2022, así como la manera en que condicionarán el crecimiento económico en los próximos años.
En la segunda parte del informe se exponen algunos de los principales retos en ma…
The United States has witnessed historic inflation since the economy began to reopen in 2021 following the COVID-19 lockdowns. Here are some of these inflation trends in five charts:…
Este informe anual de la CEPAL examina la evolución mundial y regional de la Inversión Extranjera Directa (IED) y plantea recomendaciones para que estos flujos contribuyan a los procesos de desarrollo productivo de la región.
La IED puede apoyar la realización de las inversiones necesarias para que los países avancen hacia un desarrollo más inclusivo y sostenible, pero, como ha planteado la CEPAL en sucesivas ediciones de este mismo informe, esto no sucede de forma automática. Se requieren políticas que provean el marco necesario para que la IED que ingresa a la región se dirija a actividades …
This document examines the global and regional evolution of FDI and offers recommendations so these flows can contribute to the region’s productive development processes.
FDI can support the investments needed for countries to move towards more inclusive and sustainable development, but, as ECLAC has argued in successive editions of this report, that does not happen automatically. Policies are needed to provide the necessary framework so that FDI entering the region is directed towards activities that support virtuous development in respect of inclusiveness, employment quality, environmental s…
The United States has witnessed historic inflation since the economy began to reopen in 2021 following the lockdowns triggered by the coronavirus disease (COVID-19) pandemic. The United States economic outlook: inflation trends post COVID-19 looks at the forces behind this surge in prices and the trade-offs and risks for the policy response. The report examines inflation trends and drivers, as well as labour market trends since the economy reopened; economic policies implemented by the United States in response to the pandemic, and more recently to inflation; and the possible impact of these p…
En este trabajo se estudian los factores que impulsaron la inflación en el bienio 2021 -2022 en seis economías de América Latina desde un enfoque de costos. Los determinantes de la inflación se estiman a partir de una variante de un modelo empírico estándar en el que se utiliza el método de proyección local de Jordà (2005). Los resultados obtenidos muestran que el mayor aporte al aumento de la inflación en el período analizado se asocia a la suba del precio de las materias primas, tanto entre las economías exportadoras como importadoras de esos productos. A su vez, se muestra que el aumento de…
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