Climate change is transforming the way we live and redefining the future of childhood. In the Latin American and Caribbean region, children and young peopleⁱ face unprecedented risks that threaten their present and future opportunities. Climate change affects them disproportionately, as they are physically and physiologically more vulnerable to withstand and survive extreme weather conditions such as floods, droughts, storms and heat waves. This vulnerability is also due to their high economic dependence, the prevalence of poverty and the lack of access to essential services for their development, such as healthcare, nutrition, education and social protection, which limits the resources available to deal with a changing climate. As these impacts intensify, these trends are expected to worsen, potentially resulting in a lifetime of missed opportunities.

This study analyses the potential impact of climate change on the incidence of child and youth poverty in Latin America in 2030. Based on harmonised poverty data for 18 countries in the region, the results show that climate change will cause a considerable increase in child and youth poverty in Latin America. However, the final magnitude of this increase will depend on (i) the climate scenario towards which the planet is heading and (ii) the public policies that the region implements.

This document quantifies the impacts of climate change under three climate scenarios: Net Zero 2050 , Current policies and Too little, too late . These scenarios reflect the different efforts aimed at reducing global greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. In each scenario, the economic impacts of climate change are considered, including the chronic effects related to the trend increase in temperatures and the acute effects associated with four types of extreme weather events: heat waves, droughts, floods and tropical cyclones. Likewise, it explores how a deepening of economic inequality driven by the effects of climate change - and reflected by an increase in the Gini coefficient of income distribution - could impact the evolution of child and youth poverty (climate change and inequality effect).

In 2030, even in a scenario where ambitious and rapid reductions in GHG emissions are implemented globally (Net Zero 2050 ), it is estimated that climate change could push an additional 5.9 million children and young people into poverty. On the other hand, in a scenario of climate inaction (Too little, too late ), this number could triple to 17.9 million additional children and young people. By way of comparison, approximately 11 million children and young people were pushed into poverty as a result of the COVID-19 pandemic.