(*) This document was prepared by André A. Hofman of the Economic Projections Center of the Statistics Division, and Heriberto Tapia research assistant in the office of the Executive Secretary of ECLAC. The views expressed in this document, which has been reproduced without formal editing, are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the views of the Organization.. Abstract Potential output estimates are becoming increasingly important in policy design in Latin America (ECLAC, 2002) and the objective of this paper is to make a methodological contribution to this field of work…
En los últimos años del siglo XX, América Latina experimentó cambios muy significativos, tanto en el ámbito económico como en el dominio político: se recuperó la senda de crecimiento de finales de los años setenta y la democracia volvió a imperar en casi toda la región. A la luz de todo lo anterior, se estimó que era oportuno interrelacionar estos dos elementos, pero centrándose en dos países relevantes: Chile y México. El primero es una democracia, que ha vivido un gran apogeo económico tras el restablecimiento del régimen de libertades públicas; mientras que la república azteca es el país co…
The article outlines a new agenda for reform that focuses on what Latin American countries can do given the current international regime, and identifies the failings of the earlier reform agenda: i); the reforms increased countries' exposure to risk without increasing their capacity to cope with it; ii); the macroeconomic reforms were unbalanced; iii); the reforms pushed privatization and measures for strengthening the private sector, but placed too little weight on improving the public sector. The article further argues in favour of formulating a set of economic policies that reflect a b…
En el artículo se esboza una nueva agenda para las reformas,
que se concentra en lo que los países latinoamericanos pueden
hacer en el régimen internacional actual, y se identifican las
deficiencias de la agenda anterior: i); las reformas aumentaron
la exposición de los países al riesgo, sin acrecentar su capacidad
de enfrentarlo; ii); las reformas macroeconómicas no han
sido equilibradas; iii); las reformas impulsaron la privatización
y el fortalecimiento del sector privado, pero dieron escasa
importancia al mejoramiento del sector público. Además, se
argumenta a favor de formular un conjunto…
This publication provides an assessment of the region's economic performance during the first half of 2003 and of its prospects for the remainder of the year. An analysis is presented of the main aspects of the regional economy, including its external sector, macroeconomic policies, levels of economic activity, inflation, employment, saving and investment. A statistical appendix consisting of 25 tables with data series up to 2002 is also furnished. The document, which is being published simultaneously in Spanish and English, corresponds to the first chapter of the Economic Survey of L…
Este documento contiene una evaluación de la economía de la región al término del primer semestre de 2003 y de las perspectivas para el resto del año. Se incluye un análisis de los principales aspectos de la economía regional: sector externo, política macroeconómica, nivel de actividad, inflación, empleo, ahorro e inversión. El documento va acompañado de un anexo estadístico que contiene 25 cuadros con series de datos que abarcan hasta el 2002. Con la distribución de este documento se procura suplir la función cumplida anteriormente por el Panorama económico de América Latina, publicación d…
Resumen Este trabajo presenta un análisis de las políticas macroeconómicas aplicadas en la Argentina a lo largo de los años noventa y de sus efectos sobre la vulnerabilidad social. Se describe inicialmente el esquema macroeconómico que estuvo vigente en todo ese período y se caracteriza su forma de funcionamiento. Luego se estudia la evolución del mercado de trabajo en una perspectiva agregada, atendiendo al hecho de que las condiciones de empleo y la evolución del desempleo son variables cruciales por su gravitación sobre la vulnerabilidad social. Posteriormente se examina la evolución de…
Foreword The 1990s were unquestionably a time of transition and reorientation in several aspects of Latin America and the Caribbean's economic, social and political development. As in any period with these characteristics, the effects of long-standing processes mingled and interacted with incipient change. When the decade ended, ECLAC wished to contribute to the evaluation of the main events that marked the consolidation of reform in the region, recognizing of course that the speed of progress varied from country to country and from sector to sector. This publication offers an analysis of…
Abstract During the Asian crisis, intermediate exchange rate regimes vanished. It has been argued that those regimes were no longer useful and only the extremes remained valid. The paper analyses three foreign exchange regimes: Argentina (pegged), Chile (band) and Mexico (float). The Argentinean currency board delivered low financial volatility while it was credible, but even then it displayed high real volatility. Mexican float performed well in periods of instability isolating the real sector. The Chilean band delivered a mixed outcome as compared …
Abstract Based on the analysis of the Argentinean currency board and the full dollarization scheme in Ecuador this paper argues that an intermediate exchange rate regime (compared to free floating or hard peg) will be a better option for countries subject to external financial shocks and a worldwide export and import structure. It shows that the Argentine convertibility system was successful as an anti-inflationary program. However, the reduction in the inflation rate has been accompanied by a dramatic change in relative prices of tradable and non tradable goods and services, which ha…
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