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Mexico: Combining monthly inflation predictions from surveys

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Author: Poncela, Pilar - Guerrero, Víctor - Islas C., Alejandro - Rodríguez, Julio - Sánchez-Mangas, Rocío UN symbol.: LC/G.2614-P p. 75-87; grafs., tabls. August 2014


We examine the problem of combining Mexican inflation predictions or projections provided by a biweekly survey of professional forecasters. Consumer price inflation in Mexico is measured twice a month. We consider several combining methods and advocate the use of dimension reduction techniques whose performance is compared with different benchmark methods, including the simplest average prediction. Missing values in the database are imputed by two different databased methods. The results obtained are basically robust to the choice of the imputation method. A preliminary analysis of the data was based on its panel data structure and showed the potential usefulness of using dimension reduction techniques to combine the experts' predictions. The main findings are: the first monthly predictions are best combined by way of the first principal component of the predictions available; the best second monthly prediction is obtained by calculating the median prediction and is more accurate than the first one.

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CEPAL Review no. 113


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