This study is guided by two primary objectives. The first is to review the range of technological options available for reducing greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions in the ammonia industry. The second is to explore a policy-based financing intervention capable of establishing an enabling environment for decarbonizing this industry. The proposed policy instrument is the use of green bonds to finance the industry’s transition, with a particular attention given to tokenized, index-linked green bonds. These financial instruments are structured such that their coupon are dynamically linked to the movements in the spot price of ammonia. Because the performance of these bonds is directly influenced by ammonia price dynamics, the forecasting of ammonia prices constitutes an important supporting objective of this study, as it is essential for the design of the bonds.

To address this, this study applies a Mixture of Experts modelling framework to estimate and forecast ammonia prices. The empirical results indicate a stable to modestly bullish price trend, which has significant implications for the performance of tokenized index-linked green bonds. Such bonds would offer investors a base coupon rate plus a premium that increases in line with ammonia prices. As prices are projected to rise gradually, investors are likely to benefit from increasing coupon payments, particularly during the early stages of the bond’s maturity.

Achieving decarbonization in the ammonia industry necessitates substantial capital outlays across two principal technological pathways. The first involves the production of blue ammonia, which integrates carbon capture, storage, and utilization (CCSU) technologies with the conventional Haber–Bosch process to reduce carbon dioxide emissions. The second pathway focuses on green ammonia production, where hydrogen is generated through water electrolysis and subsequently combined with nitrogen in the Haber–Bosch synthesis process. In both cases, tokenized green bonds are proposed as a mechanism to bridge the financing gap, mobilize long-term capital, and support the large-scale investments required for transitioning the ammonia industry toward lower-carbon production methods.