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Uncertainty and economic growth: evidence from Latin America

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Uncertainty and economic growth: evidence from Latin America

Author: Aromí, Daniel - Bermúdez, Cecilia - Dabús, Carlos Physical Description: páginas. 7-2 Date: August 2022 ECLAC symbol: LC/PUB.2022/8-P


This paper explores the effect of uncertainty on economic growth in Latin American from 1960 to 2016. Uncertainty is found to be positively correlated to inflation and the volatility of three macroeconomic variables: inflation rate, GDP and the real exchange rate. The empirical evidence indicates that uncertainty is detrimental for growth, particularly at higher levels. In line with existing consensus in the literature, the results appear to show that macroeconomic instability has been a major hindrance explaining the poor economic performance of the region. Economic policy recommendations include applying more stringent countercyclical policies to stabilize prices and output fluctuations.