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The use of high-frequency indicators in short-term forecasting models: The case of Latin American and Caribbean countries

June 2017 | Macroeconomics of Development
Publication cover
Author:
Manuelito, Sandra
UN symbol.:
LC/TS.2017/61
Pages:
28 p.
Editorial:
ECLAC
Type:
Macroeconomics of Development
Collection:
  • ECLAC Series
    • Macroeconomics of Development

Description

The importance of sound and accurate early estimates of economic activity is of utmost importance to national economic authorities at the time of the decision-making process, and to the various agents involved in the economic analysis and follow up of the short-term economic prospects. In this context, the availability of short-term forecasts for quarterly GDP growth rates becomes highly relevant. In Latin America and the Caribbean an increasing amount of countries is producing high frequency economic data, and there has been an increasing interest by national authorities to use this data to improve economic analyses and short-term economic forecasts. This article discusses the use of the now casting methodology applied to Latin American and Caribbean countries with the objective of generating more accurate quarterly GDP growth forecasts. The results show that, for the short-term, this methodology produces accurate and reliable estimates although results at the country level depend very much on the amount and quality of the data available, as well as on its timeliness.

Table of contents

Abstract .-- Introduction .-- I. The use of high frequency indicators in short-term economic analysis and forecasting in Latin America and Caribbean countries .-- II. The empirical models .-- III. Usefulness, scope and challenges in the use of these models in the Latin American and Caribbean context .-- Conclusions.

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