United States economic outlook: 2025 year-in-review and first quarter of 2026
The report reviews developments in the U.S. economy during 2025 and the first quarter of 2026, covering growth, inflation, the labor market, monetary and trade policy, and their implications for financial conditions in Latin America and the Caribbean.
In 2025, the U.S. economy remained resilient, with consumer spending remaining the main driver of growth. Labor market conditions weakened and inflation moderated, although it remained above the Federal Reserve's target. The Federal Reserve lowered interest rates during the second half of the year before keeping them unchanged in the first quarter of 2026, when job creation rebounded even as inflationary pressures re-emerged. Over the same period, AI-related investment became an increasingly important source of economic growth.
U.S. economic and policy developments continued to influence financial conditions in Latin America and the Caribbean. International bond issuance reached record levels in 2025 and the first quarter of 2026. However, heightened geopolitical risks and continued policy uncertainty may pose challenges for the region going forward.