Background

Governments of Caribbean member States and associate members are increasingly recognising the important role now being played by demographic trends in shaping their development trajectories. Population ageing has been a matter of concern for some time and this demographic process continues to accelerate. The same underlying trends in fertility and mortality which lead to population ageing are also resulting in a decline in the size of working age populations and, in some countries, the total population. This is drawing the attention of policymakers and prompting greater interest in the low levels of fertility which are now being seen in many Caribbean countries. The decline of working age populations also accentuates skills shortages creating a demand for migrant labour and a need for policies to control and manage the resulting migratory flows. 

The total fertility rate for the Caribbean has been falling since 1960, first falling below 2 in 2010, and estimated to be 1.72 births per woman in 2023. Fertility rates have fallen further and faster than was previously projected. In 2023, the total fertility rate was estimated to be below 1.4 in Anguilla, Bahamas, British Virgin Islands, Curaçao, Jamaica and Saint Lucia. However, rates remain above 2 in Belize, Guyana, Suriname, United States Virgin Islands and the French-speaking Caribbean. Falling levels of fertility have always been seen as an indicator of social development, reflecting progress towards realization of the right for all couples and individuals to decide freely and responsibly the number, spacing and timing of their children. However, the fall in fertility rates in some countries to such low levels, draws attention to the role played by factors such as a lack of employment opportunities, access to childcare, housing costs, and an unequal division of labour in the home, that may be delaying or preventing family formation and childbearing. These are issues which deserve greater attention to ensure that decisions about childbearing can be made freely without being unduly constrained by these economic and social factors. 

Lower rates of fertility, together with increased life expectancy, are the primary drivers of population ageing. The old age dependency ratio for the Caribbean, which measures the number of older persons per 100 persons of working age (persons aged 65+ / persons aged 15-64), increased from 13 in 2012 to 18 in 2024 and is expected to increase to 28 by 2040. The process is most advanced in Barbados and in many of the associate member countries, while it is less advanced in countries such as Belize, Guyana and Jamaica. However, ageing is essentially a common process which affects all countries and these demographic trends have important implications for labour markets, productivity, social protection systems, and the funding of health and social care services. The framework adopted by the international community to address ageing and policies for older persons is the Madrid International Plan of Action on Ageing (MIPAA), adopted in 2002. The fifth five-yearly review of the implementation of the Madrid Plan recently got underway and ECLAC are encouraging countries to carry out national reviews to be presented, in 2027, at the Sixth Regional Intergovernmental Conference on Ageing and the Rights of Older Persons in Latin America and the Caribbean. This review process is an important opportunity to take stock of the latest evidence, and to use it for the development of evidence-based policy measures to address the consequences of population ageing and protect the rights of older persons.

These issues of low fertility and ageing, including their effects on labour productivity and international migration, are coming to be seen not only as concerns which are important in their own right, but as a set of interrelated issues which are now coming together to impact Caribbean development and which need to be addressed in a coherent way. The idea of resilience has become central to development planning in the Caribbean, principally in relation to the threat of climate change and extreme weather events, but this idea needs to be extended to include resilience to demographic challenges. Achieving this demographic resilience requires anticipating, planning for, and shaping (rather than being shaped by) demographic changes. This requires strengthening evidence-based governance, based on the collection and use of population data and projections, and a focus on rights-based policies rather than crude demographic targets.

These are some of the issues which will be addressed at the upcoming Regional Conference on Population and Development in Latin America and the Caribbean which will be held in Montevideo, Uruguay, from 18 to 20 August 2026. The Regional Population Conference and Development is a permanent subsidiary body of ECLAC which is convened on a regular basis to provide regional follow-up on matters relating to population and development, such as ageing, sexual and reproductive health, gender and international migration, among other issues. At the upcoming conference, the secretariat will present a document on the challenges and opportunities that low fertility and population ageing in Latin America and the Caribbean present for sustainable development, inclusion and the full enjoyment of rights in the region.

This Caribbean preparatory meeting will provide an opportunity to discuss how the issues of low fertility and ageing are affecting the Caribbean, which is the subregion where these trends are most advanced, and the importance of integrating resilience to demographic change into policymaking. In addition, the meeting will prepare Caribbean member States for participation in the fuller discussion of these issues which take place at the upcoming Regional Conference on Population and Development. The Caribbean preparatory meeting will be held in virtual format, on July 7th, 2026, at 10.00 a.m. Eastern Caribbean Time.