Tourism and Agriculture Will Be the Sectors Most Affected by Climate Change in the Caribbean

Photo: oHoTos, Flickr

Although the countries of the Caribbean contribute less than 1% of global greenhouse gas emissions, they will be among the first to suffer the consequences of climate change and their economies and societies are more likely to suffer disproportional impacts.

The study entitled The Economics of Climate Change in the Caribbean, conducted by ECLAC Subregional Headquarters for the Caribbean in Port-of-Spain (Trinidad and Tobago), in collaboration with the United Kingdom Department for International Development (DFID) and the Caribbean Community Climate Change Centre, estimated the economic impact of climate change in the subregion.

It indicates that climate change will cost the countries of the Caribbean up to 5% of annual GDP if mitigation and adaptation strategies are not implemented.

It states that climate change poses a serious threat to sustainable human development, impacting negatively on livelihoods, ecosystems, infrastructure, health and the productive sectors. For the small island developing States (SIDS) of the Caribbean, the threat is even more severe due to the biophysical and socio-economic characteristics of these countries which make them especially vulnerable to these impacts.

Additionally, tourism, the main economic activity of many countries in the subregion, and agriculture will be the most affected sectors. This is a result of the geographic location of many of these Caribbean States in the hurricane belt, and the concentrations of their populations and economic infrastructure in coastal zones.

The increase in temperature will have a very negative impact on food security. According to the study, the projections for precipitation in the Southern Caribbean indicate a drop in rainfall. An increase of between 3% and 11% is predicted for the Northern Caribbean. This will have severe consequences on agricultural production given that in many of the islands, agriculture is not as important as before and they are more dependent on food imports.

The assessment carried out in the study indicates that the agricultural sector accounts for 30% of employment in the Caribbean. The largest impact of climate change in this region is expected to be derived from increases in the incidence of extreme weather events, including high-intensity hurricanes and flooding. For example, in Guyana, the sugarcane subsector is expected to experience losses of US$ 300 million by 2050 under one of the possible scenarios of an increase in the average annual temperature in the Caribbean.

Many of the islands, such as the Bahamas, Barbados, Antigua and Barbuda, Saint Vincent and the Grenadines, depend largely on tourism. The study reveals that with the increase in temperatures, tourists will no longer wish to visit places as before. Although they seek the sun, they do not want to be in an excessively hot environment and a decline in visitors is expected.

According to the report, a rise of 1.5 degrees Celsius in the ocean temperature will be enough to provoke major catastrophes, such as the rise in sea level.

For example, in Barbados where 70% of the population lives on the coast and where much infrastructure is located on the coast, an expected loss of the tourism industry’s assets is estimated at US$ 4.7 billion by 2020 and US$ 44 billion by 2100 as a result of the rise in sea level.

Likewise, on average the occurrence of diseases relating to the rise in temperatures (dengue fever, gastroenteritis, leptospirosis and malaria) is expected to increase, which in turn will result in a rise in treatment costs.

Adaptation responses

In accordance with the ECLAC report, three options remain open to the governments faced with the enormity of the challenges: mitigation, adaptation or “no response”.

Given that their contribution to greenhouse gas emissions is minimal, adaptation to climate change appears to be the only viable alternative for the small island developing States in the Caribbean. For this reason, the nations are advised to integrate efforts promoting low carbon economies, while focusing on the design and implementation of climate change adaptation policies and strategies.

The countries are already adopting climate change adaptation strategies with the help of this Organization of the United Nations.

The options considered include: what to do with the tourism sector, how to increase water supply and how to increase energy efficiency, among others.

However, several studies have also indicated that climate change poses a risk to advances made in recent decades towards the reduction of poverty and inequality in these countries.

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