CEPAL Review no. 137

Revista CEPAL no. 137

Uncertainty and economic growth: evidence from Latin America

This paper explores the effect of uncertainty on economic growth in Latin American from 1960 to 2016. Uncertainty is found to be positively correlated to inflation and the volatility of three macroeconomic variables: inflation rate, GDP and the real exchange rate. The empirical evidence indicates that uncertainty is detrimental for growth, particularly at higher levels. In line with existing consensus in the literature, the results appear to show that macroeconomic instability has been a major hindrance explaining the poor economic performance of the region. Economic policy recommendations inc…

Incertidumbre y crecimiento económico: enseñanzas de América Latina

En el presente artículo, se explora el efecto de la incertidumbre sobre el crecimiento económico en América Latina entre 1960 y 2016. Se considera que la incertidumbre mantiene una correlación con la inflación y con la volatilidad de tres variables macroeconómicas: tasa de inflación, PIB y tipo de cambio real. Las pruebas empíricas indican que la incertidumbre es perjudicial para el crecimiento, en especial cuando alcanza niveles elevados. De acuerdo con el consenso existente en la literatura, los resultados parecen indicar que la inestabilidad macroeconómica ha supuesto un obstáculo important…

The Hummingbird Vol. 9 No. 8

United States economic outlook: 2021 year-in-review and first quarter of 2022

In 2021, economic growth in the United States was the strongest since 1984 (5.7%) but in the first quarter of 2022 the economy contracted. Here is the economic outlook in five charts:…

United States economic outlook: 2021 year-in-review and first quarter of 2022

The United States economy expanded by 5.7% in 2021, the strongest annual growth since 1984, but in a sharp reversal it contracted 1.5% in the first quarter of 2022. Although the overall economy is expected to resume modest growth in the second quarter of 2022 and beyond owing to robust consumer spending and a strong labour market, risks to the economic outlook are rising. Inflation is at a 40-year high, and the Federal Reserve is raising interest rates at the most aggressive pace since the 1980s. The United States economic outlook: 2021 year-in-review and first quarter of 2022 presents and ana…

The Hummingbird Vol. 9 No. 7

Report of the Third meeting of the Conference on Science, Innovation and Information and Communications Technologies of the Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean

Informe de la Tercera Reunión de la Conferencia de Ciencia, Innovación y Tecnologías de la Información y las Comunicaciones de la Comisión Económica para América Latina y el Caribe

Capital Flows to Latin America and the Caribbean: 2021 year-in-review and the first four months of 2022

Latin American and Caribbean issuance in international debt markets broke an all-time annual record in 2021, reaching US$ 149 billion. It slowed considerably in the first four months of 2022, however: at US$ 38 billion, it was 42% lower than in the same period in 2021.…

Flujos de capitales hacia América Latina y el Caribe: revisión del año 2021 y de los primeros 4 meses de 2022

Después de alcanzar un récord en 2021, la emisión de bonos de América Latina y el Caribe (ALC) en los mercados internacionales se desaceleró considerablemente en los primeros cuatro meses de 2022.…

Fluxos de capitais para a América Latina e o Caribe: revisão de 2021 e dos primeiros quatro meses de 2022

Depois de alcançar um recorde em 2021, a emissão de títulos da América Latina e do Caribe (ALC) nos mercados internacionais se desacelerou consideravelmente nos primeiros quatro meses de 2022.…

Repercusiones en América Latina y el Caribe de la guerra en Ucrania: ¿cómo enfrentar esta nueva crisis?

Presentación informe especial CEPAL sobre los impactos de la guerra en Ucrania en América Latina

Presentación de Mario Cimoli, Secretario Ejecutivo Interino de la CEPAL, del informe Repercusiones en América Latina y el Caribe de la guerra en Ucrania: ¿cómo enfrentar esta nueva crisis?…

War in Ukraine Quickens Inflation, Reduces Growth and Increases Poverty in Latin America and the Caribbean

The Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean (ECLAC) released a new policy brief today that analyzes the war in Ukraine’s economic and social effects on the region and provides recommendations to countries on how to address them. According to the United Nations regional organization, the region’s economies face a difficult scenario in 2022 in an external context of uncertainty, inflation (particularly in food and energy), and a deceleration of economic activity and trade. According to ECLAC’s report entitled Repercussions in Latin America and the Caribbean of the war in Ukraine:…

Guerra en Ucrania acelera la inflación, reduce el crecimiento y aumenta la pobreza en América Latina y el Caribe

La Comisión Económica para América Latina y el Caribe (CEPAL) entregó hoy un nuevo informe especial en donde se analizan los impactos económicos y sociales de la guerra en Ucrania en la región, y entrega recomendaciones a sus países sobre cómo enfrentarlos. Según el organismo regional de las Naciones Unidas, las economías de la región enfrentan una coyuntura difícil en 2022 en un contexto externo de incertidumbre, inflación (en especial de alimentos y energía) y desaceleración de la actividad económica y el comercio. Según el informe de la CEPAL titulado Repercusiones en América Latina y el C…

Guerra na Ucrânia acelera a inflação, reduz o crescimento e aumenta a pobreza na América Latina e no Caribe

A Comissão Econômica para a América Latina e o Caribe (CEPAL) entregou hoje um novo relatório especial no qual se analisam os impactos econômicos e sociais da guerra da Ucrânia na região, e se oferecem recomendações aos países sobre como enfrentá-los. Segundo o organismo regional das Nações Unidas, as economias latino-americanas e caribenhas enfrentam uma conjuntura difícil em 2022, num contexto externo de incerteza, inflação (especialmente em alimentos e energia) e desaceleração da atividade econômica e do comércio. De acordo com o relatório da CEPAL titulado Repercussões na América lat…

Repercussions in Latin America and the Caribbean of the war in Ukraine: how should the region face this new crisis?

The Case for Economic Restructuring Post-COVID-19 in the Caribbean

Since the global crisis of 2008-2009, there has been less confidence in the primacy of markets to lead sustainable development among developing countries in general and small island developing States (SIDS) in particular. It is acknowledged that markets need discipline and an institutional context that can support private gains while reducing social costs and delivering less inequality. Prompted by declining competitiveness in leading sectors, and a commitment to addressing the United Nations Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs), governments in the subregion have been developing long-term plan…