Climate change refers to ongoing alterations in climate variables such as temperature and precipitation, caused directly or indirectly by human activity, which modify the composition of the global atmosphere. These climate variables are directly related to the productivity of the agricultural sector.   

Agricultural vulnerability and food security 

Production in this sector, particularly of staple grains such as corn, rice, and beans, is vital to food and nutritional security in Central America and the Dominican Republic.   

According to ECLAC projections, climate change could cause a reduction in corn, rice, and bean production yields of up to 35%, 43%, and 50%, respectively, in an extreme scenario by the year 2100. 

In addition to measuring the impacts of climate change on staple grains and coffee, ECLAC's subregional headquarters in Mexico and the Central American Agricultural Council (CAC) conducted a regional analysis of agricultural vulnerability to climate change for the countries of the Central American Integration System (SICA) region. This analysis follows the methodology suggested by the IPCC and is a first effort to perform a regional calculation.   

The analysis, conducted at the municipal level, suggests that these studies should be carried out periodically with better variables for adaptive capacity. The following maps show the results of this analysis.  

Climate Impacts on health  

Climate affects health both directly and indirectly. Direct impacts include increased mortality from extreme events such as hurricanes. Indirect impacts include reduced food availability, worsened respiratory conditions, increased waterborne illnesses, and higher incidence of vector-borne diseases such as dengue. 

ECLAC, in collaboration with the Council of Ministers of Health of Central America (COMISCA), the Climate Change Unit of the Pan American Health Organization, and the National Institute of Public Health of Mexico, explores these interrelationships by disseminating methodologies, tools, and public policies. These initiatives seek to enable governments and their health authorities to respond to the challenges of the climate emergency. 

ECLAC recommends strengthening research and analytical capacities in the health sector. This requires generating valid evidence and systematizing information at the local, regional, and national levels, as well as strengthening the planning processes for the health sector's response to climate change. 

Climate threats to energy and infrastructure 

Hydroelectric production is affected by climate change, specifically by variations in precipitation or evaporation levels. The increase in the duration and severity of droughts reduces the availability of water for energy production. 

As part of the initiative “The Economics of Climate Change in Central America,” ECLAC contributed to two reports that simulated the expected impact of climate change on four hydroelectric power plants in El Salvador, Guatemala, Panama, and the Dominican Republic. The results generated short-, medium-, and long-term calculations. These results underscore the importance of acting now in response to the threat of climate change with short- and long-term recommendations. 

In SICA member countries, public infrastructure that provides essential services to the population faces threats associated with extreme weather events such as hurricanes, floods, and droughts. At the same time, climate change is exacerbating these threats and generating new slow-onset threats, such as rising temperatures and changes in rainfall patterns. 

Climate change also exacerbates the degradation of ecosystems caused by direct human activity on the environment. This complex combination of adverse factors is increasing the risks faced by the population and the infrastructure that provides it with services. 

Resilient planning and use of climate scenarios 

Traditionally, the formulation stage of public investment projects in road infrastructure, water resources and sanitation, health, and agriculture uses historical climate information to characterize the location where the public investment will be made. 

However, high-resolution information on medium- and long-term climate change scenarios is necessary as a measure to reduce the risk of service disruption due to extreme events and to adapt to climate change in a sustainable and inclusive manner. ECLAC has prepared an analysis that proposes criteria and recommendations on the most useful data for formulating public investment projects that are resilient to extreme events for SICA countries. 

Planning for climate change involves the use of climate scenarios and projections, which enable local authorities to assess potential impacts. However, the use of these tools carries a degree of uncertainty, which is inherent in long-term planning.