Demographic Bulletin of January 1999
1970 - 2025
The present publication updates the information presented in issue No. 56 of the Demographic Bulletin (July 1995) based on revised projections for many countries and recent urban and rural population data from the 1990s census round.
The projections published here for the urban and rural populations, by sex and five-year age group, for 1970-2025 were processed by CELADE, except in the cases of Argentina, Ecuador, Guatemala, Peru and Uruguay, for which the projections were prepared by national institutions with the assistance of CELADE - Population Division.
In the preparation of these projections, information from the latest censuses was compared with projections computed on the basis of previous censuses using the method proposed in "Metodología de las proyecciones de población urbana-rural y de población económicamente activa elaboradas en CELADE", Pujol, J. M. and J. Chackiel, in Métodos para proyecciones demográficas (CELADE, 1984). The comparison demonstrated these projections corresponded quite closely to the census results.
Consequently, the method used by CELADE on previous occasions, which is based on percentage breakdowns of the total urban population by sex and age group calculated using population census data, was employed for this issue of the Bulletin as well. This methodology projects the percentages of the total urban population by sex using a logistic curve with four parameters: two "observed" values (corresponding to the last two censuses in most cases), and a lower and upper asymptote. The procedure also assumes that the percentage breakdown of the urban population by age follows a logistic pattern similar to that of the total. Then, in order to obtain the corresponding population values, these percentages are applied to the population breakdowns by sex and age obtained from the national projections in use in the countries (Demographic Bulletin, No. 62).
In tables A and B, the lower and upper asymptotes of the logistic curves used for the countries are presented according to level of urbanization. The censuses for the 1980s and 1990s were taken as pivots. Census data from the 1970s round were used as logistic parameters in some cases, while in others, estimates for the year 2000 were employed.
The explanatory notes included in this issue of the Bulletin cover all the basic inputs used by CELADE in computing its projections: national censuses, total population projections, and the methods used to project urbanization levels (urban percentages, by sex) and the structure of the population (urban percentages, by sex and age). The urban and rural population projections prepared by national institutions in Argentina and Ecuador were also based on a logistic procedure.
One of the problems in analysing urban and rural population trends and in making cross-country comparisons is the use of different definitions of "urban" and "rural". In order to provide more detailed information about this aspect, the appendix details the criteria used in each country since the 1960 census round.
As is customary, table 1a shows the total population of 20 Latin American and Caribbean countries between 1970 and 2050. Table 1b shows the population of these same countries, by calendar year, for the period 1995-2005. Tables 2 through 10 give selected demographic indicators for these countries, such as growth rates, total fertility rates and crude birth and mortality rates. Tables 11 and 12 present indicators for the urban and rural populations.
Following these, tables 13 to 33 contain Latin American countries urban and rural population projections.
LATIN AMERICA: ASYMPTOTES AND PIVOTS USED IN THE PROJECTION OF THE URBAN POPULATION AS APERCENTAGE, BY COUNTRY
a Projection prepared by a national institution with assistance
from CELADE (see exploratory Notes).
LATIN AMERICA: ASYMPTOTES AND PIVOTS USED IN THE PROJECTION OF THE URBAN POPULATION AS A PERCENTAGE, BY COUNTRY
aProjection prepared by a national institution with assistance from CELADE (see exploratory Notes).
b Projection computed on the basis of components method.